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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MacaoMacao Unemployment Rate climbed to 1.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Macao Unemployment Rate climbed to 1.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 0.1% from May's 1.8% reading. The print came in hotter than the 1.8% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.81%. Over the past 3 months, Unemployment Rate averaged 1.8%, vs 1.78% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
1.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 2
Actual: 1.8
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Unemployment Rate (Macao) was reported at 1.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 1.8% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.81%, ranging from 1.7% to 2% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 1.77%, up from the prior three at 1.73%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.11%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.42%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, positively correlated (Bullish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.2%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Unemployment Rate - MO
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About Unemployment Rate — Macao
DEFINITION
The Unemployment Rate is a key economic indicator that measures the percentage of the total labor force that is currently without a job and actively seeking employment. It is used to assess the health of the job market and the overall state of the economy. A high unemployment rate can indicate a weak economy, while a low unemployment rate can suggest a strong and growing economy. This data is closely monitored by policymakers, businesses, and investors to make informed decisions and projections.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus 1.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.8 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 1.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.43) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MO Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:50 | MO | Unemployment Rate | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.85 | Low |
| 08:50 | MO | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 0.3 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 2.40 | Low |
| 09:00 | MO | Balance of Trade | -10.9 | -10.8 | -12.1 | -11.50 | Low |