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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
VietnamVietnam Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 16.1% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Vietnam Tourist Arrivals YoY fell to 16.1% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2.3% from August's 18.4% reading. The reading missed the 1,610.0% consensus by 1,593.9%. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 3.4%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 12.5%, vs 19.65% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 30th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
16.1
Actual
1610
Consensus
18.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1,610
Actual: 16.1
Error: +1,593.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.81 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.46 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Vietnam) was reported at 16.1% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1610% by 1593.9%. The reading fell from the previous value of 18.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.36%, ranging from 6.6% to 22.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.7%, down from the prior three at 17.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.94%) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.15%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 18.83%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - VN
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Vietnam
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 16.1 %, consensus 1,610 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 18.4 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 6.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.81) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - VN Events
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:30 | VN | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.9 | 52.1 | 52.55 | Low | |
| Tuesday, November 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:00 | VN | Retail Sales YoY | 14.1 | 15 | 15.15 | Low | |
| 02:00 | VN | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 16.1 | 16 | 16.00 | Low | |
| 02:00 | VN | Foreign Direct Investment | 21.07 | 22 | 22.10 | Low | |
| 02:00 | VN | Balance of Trade | 1.27 | 1.35 | 0.46 | Low | |
| 02:00 | VN | Industrial Production YoY | 16.7 | 15.5 | 17.00 | Low | |
| 02:00 | VN | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.08 | 5.2 | 5.18 | Low | |