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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
VietnamVietnam Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 22.8% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Vietnam Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 22.8% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 21.5% from March's 1.3% reading. The print exceeded the 4.0% consensus by 18.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 17.33%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged 12.5%, vs 17.8% in the prior 3-month window. Tourist Arrivals YoY is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
22.8
Actual
4
Consensus
1.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.03 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Feb 2025
Predicted: 29.8
Actual: 36.9
Error: -7.1
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Vietnam) was reported at 18.4% in September 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 6.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.73%, ranging from 6.6% to 22.1% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13.83%, down from the prior three at 17.3%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.06%) is lower than the prior year (σ 10.1%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 17.53%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.03%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 3, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - VN
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Vietnam
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 18.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 6.6 %. Before that (May 2026): 16.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.84) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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