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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
ArmeniaArmenia Balance of Trade fell to -699.1M in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Armenia Balance of Trade fell to -699.1M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 99.5M from June's -599.6M reading. The reading missed the -495M consensus by 204.1M. Balance of Trade has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Balance of Trade averaged -498.85M, vs -441.57M in the prior 3-month window. Balance of Trade is now the lowest in 26 months.
Latest Release
-699.1
Actual
-495
Consensus
-599.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±52.54 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -500.68
Actual: -699.1
Error: +198.43
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Balance of Trade (Armenia) was reported at -699.10 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of -495.00 million by 204.10 million. The reading fell from the previous value of -599.60 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -448.01 million, ranging from -699.10 million to -285.30 million across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -565.60 million, down from the prior three at -407.30 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 106.02 million) is lower than the prior year (σ 123.74 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, Balance of Trade has averaged -459.77 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/JPY (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 52.54 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Balance of Trade - AM
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About Balance of Trade — Armenia
DEFINITION
The Balance of Trade is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is running a trade surplus or deficit. A positive balance of trade indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative balance of trade suggests the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -699.1 M, consensus -495 M. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -540.2 M. Before that (May 2026): -457.5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bullish USD, r=0.68) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
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Economic Calendar - AM Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | AM | Interest Rate Decision | 6.75 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 6.63 | Low |