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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Retail Sales MoM fell to -3.5% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Estonia Retail Sales MoM fell to -3.5% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 18.0% from March's 14.5% reading. The reading missed the 1.2% consensus by 4.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 3.36%. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
-3.5
Actual
1.2
Consensus
14.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.42 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 1.2
Actual: -3.5
Error: +4.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Estonia) was reported at -3.5% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.2% by 4.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 14.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.8%, down from the prior three at 1.33%. In May readings over the past 3 years, Retail Sales MoM has averaged -1.3%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.43%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - EE
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About Retail Sales MoM — Estonia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -3.5 %, consensus 1.2 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 14.5 %. Before that (Feb 2026): -5.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.