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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
EstoniaEstonia Retail Sales MoM climbed to 1.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Estonia Retail Sales MoM climbed to 1.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 1.8% from May's 0.1% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 2.3%. Retail Sales MoM has now risen for 3 consecutive months. The reading is in the 57th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.9
Actual
-0.4
Consensus
0.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.65 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1.8
Actual: 1.9
Error: -3.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Estonia) was reported at 1.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 2.3%. The reading rose from the previous value of 0.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.65%, ranging from -3.5% to 5.9% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.5%, down from the prior three at 1.8%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.84%) is lower than the prior year (σ 5.15%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.65%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 27, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Retail Sales MoM - EE
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About Retail Sales MoM — Estonia
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 1.9 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -3.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - EE Events
| Friday, July 31, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05:00 | EE | Retail Sales MoM | 1.9 | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.75 | Low |
| 05:00 | EE | Retail Sales YoY | 0.8 | -1.1 | -3.8 | -1.50 | Low |