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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
LuxembourgLuxembourg Retail Sales MoM fell to -2.0% in November 2022
FMPMonthlyReleased January 2023
Luxembourg Retail Sales MoM fell to -2.0% in November 2022, released January 2023, down 0.3% from October's -1.7% reading. The reading missed the -1.4% consensus by 0.6%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.37%. Over the past 3 months, Retail Sales MoM averaged 1.7%, vs 1.57% in the prior 3-month window. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 7 months.
Latest Release
-2
Actual
-1.4
Consensus
-1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.16 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jan 2023
Predicted: 0.3
Actual: -2
Error: +2.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Luxembourg) was reported at -2% in January 2023. This missed the market consensus of -1.4% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of -1.7%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, down from the prior three at 1.57%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.16%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update January 2023.
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Retail Sales MoM - LU
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About Retail Sales MoM — Luxembourg
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2022): actual -2 %, consensus -1.4 %. Prior reading (Oct 2022): 2.6 %. Before that (Sep 2022): 0.8 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.