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Australia’s NAB business confidence index registered -13 for September in the October 13 release, below the consensus estimate of -9 and marking a further deterioration in the survey’s headline measure of business sentiment. The latest release lists the prior August reading at -9, putting September four points lower, while the September 8 release originally reported August at -8, a distinction that matters when comparing the successive monthly releases. Confidence weakened from -5 for June to -6 for July before reaching the latest August and September readings, extending the recent downward sequence; unlike a purchasing managers’ index, this measure does not apply a 50-point expansion threshold. The headline captures business sentiment rather than directly measuring economic output, and the available release figures provide no sector breakdown or component contributions identifying which industries drove September’s decline or how broadly businesses shared that deterioration. The supplied history does not establish a 12-month average or year-earlier comparison, but September’s -13 remains above March’s -29 and April’s -24, placing the latest setback against earlier, deeper weakness in business confidence rather than measured production. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy framework focuses on price stability and full employment, while these survey figures establish neither current interest-rate pricing nor a policy decision and provide no dates for upcoming related releases; Updated 10/13/26.
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In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
In-range ~60% (backtest)
Data as of
Oat Futures surged 0.20% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $409.57 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of $411.48–$417.…
Palladium Spot slid 0.30% on October 14, pulling below yesterday's close of $1,133.47 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $1,110.…
DAX rose 0.10% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $25,298.00. Updated 10/14/26
JPY/KRW slid 0.50% on October 14, pulling below yesterday's close of 8.4800 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 8.2362–8.7109; curre…
GLMR/USD surged 14.40% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.009540 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.006913–…
India CPI Inflation came in at 0.690000Percent, down from previous 0.730000Percent. Critical impact.
Natural Gas slid 0.20% on October 14, pulling below yesterday's close of $3.33 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.1% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $3.33–$3.41; c…
GBP/SCR surged 7.50% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of 18.6700 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.9% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast aligns with this move, projecting a range of 20.6182–24.4201; …
CELR/USD surged 5.50% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.003022 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.5% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.001845–$…
Germany Wholesale Prices MoM actual 1.9 vs 0.7 expected and 0.9 prior.
Germany Wholesale Prices YoY actual 8.7 vs 7 expected and 6.8 prior.
China New Loans actual 1080 vs 975 expected and 60 prior.
CBOE VIX came in at 15.21Index, up from previous 14.84Index. High impact.
10Y-3M Treasury Spread came in at 0.95%, down from previous 0.99%. High impact.
Fed Funds Daily came in at 3.88%, unchanged from previous 3.88%. High impact.
High Yield Spread (ICE BofA) came in at 3.11%, unchanged from previous 3.11%. High impact.
Rice Futures surged 0.60% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $17.12 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.2% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $17.07–$17…
Cocoa Futures slid 1.30% on October 14, pulling below yesterday's close of $5,804.38 — vs an avg daily swing of ±0.4% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $5,766.8…
PYTH/USD surged 6.80% on October 14, pushing above yesterday's close of $0.078190 — vs an avg daily swing of ±1.0% over 30 days. The Sigmanomics 7-day forecast conflicts with this move, projecting a range of $0.067889–$…
China's Balance of Trade for August came in at 119.100 billion CNY, matching the consensus estimate and surpassing July's 112.500 billion CNY. The increase signals a strengthening trade surplus compared to the previous …
China's Exports YoY rose to 25.000000% in August, matching estimates and up from July's 23.900000%. The increase signals continued export growth momentum despite global uncertainties. Market focus remains on upcoming tr…