W_1 Commodity Forecast — Price & Market Analysis
W_1
commoditiesCurrent Price
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
± 2.20% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
W_1's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±1.8% over 7 days, widening to ±2.7% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited.
Containment record withheld on 2 Nov 2026 (DC-001): commodity price bars carry Australia/Sydney local timestamps stored as UTC, so graded outcomes were computed against misdated bars. It returns when the timestamp fix lands and the rows re-settle.
As of November 10, 2026, W_1 is trading at 588.70. Our Sigmanomics forecast for this commodity generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. The 60%, 80% and 95% bands are sized from the instrument's realized volatility. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (US) (r=+0.75), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72), Imports (US) (r=+0.67)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.75), PPI Final Demand Ex Food Energy Trade (US) (r=-0.72), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71), House Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.66)
