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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in June 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Core CPI YoY fell to 2.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.3% from May's 2.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 2.8% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
2.6
Actual
2.8
Consensus
2.9
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Core CPI YoY (United States) was reported at 2.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 2.8% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.9%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Core CPI YoY - US
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, July 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -120 | -293 | -132.8 | -126.40 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -120 | -293 | -135.8 | -127.90 | Medium |
| Tuesday, July 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 95.3 | 95.8 | 95.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.70 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.568 | 333.979 | 334 | 333.28 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.95 | 335.12 | 334.7 | 334.32 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI MoM | -0.4 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | CPI YoY | 3.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 3.65 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.10 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Core CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.70 | Medium |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 232.7 | 104.8 | 128 | 159.68 | Medium |
| Wednesday, July 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index | 157.659 | 159.1 | 158.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index YoY | 6.5 | 7.2 | 6.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PPI YoY | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.05 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Producer Price Index MoM | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.50 | High | |
| Thursday, July 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 6.9 | 6.7 | 6.70 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Pending Home Sales YoY | 4.8 | 1.3 | 1.30 | Medium | |
| Friday, July 17, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 6.7 | 5.4 | 5.45 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Housing Starts | 1.177 | 1.2 | 1.20 | High | |
| 13:15 | US | Industrial Production YoY | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.50 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Manufacturing Production YoY | 1.4 | 1 | 1.00 | Low | |
| 13:15 | US | Capacity Utilization | 76.2 | 76.7 | 76.70 | Low | |