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Data from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS CPI Shelter climbed to 428.5 in May 2026
U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthlyReleased June 2026
US CPI Shelter climbed to 428.5 in May 2026, released June 2026, up 0.5 from April's 428.0 reading.
Latest Release
428.501000
Actual
—
Consensus
427.998000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.93 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.88 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.86 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI Shelter (United States) was reported at 428.50 Index 1982-84=100 in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 428.00 Index 1982-84=100. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 423.45 Index 1982-84=100, ranging from 418.42 Index 1982-84=100 to 428.50 Index 1982-84=100 across 9 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 427.71 Index 1982-84=100, up from the prior three at 422.99 Index 1982-84=100. Volatility over the past year (σ 3.44 Index 1982-84=100) is lower than the prior year (σ 4.08 Index 1982-84=100). In June readings over the past 3 years, CPI Shelter has averaged 414.39 Index 1982-84=100.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Chicago PMI (Aug 28) and Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations (Aug 28).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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CPI Shelter - US
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About CPI Shelter — United States
DEFINITION
US CPI Shelter rose to 427.998 in May, up from April’s 426.642, marking a steady increase in housing costs. The data shows continued upward pressure on shelter expenses, reflecting persistent inflationary trends in the sector. Market participants will watch upcoming inflation reports closely as the Federal Reserve maintains a cautious stance. Updated 7/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 428.5 Index 1982-84=100. Prior reading (May 2026): 428 Index 1982-84=100. Before that (Apr 2026): 426.6 Index 1982-84=100.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.93) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Thursday, August 27, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 205.5 | 204.25 | 203 | 204.25 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 203 | 207 | 208 | 205.50 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.92 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0 | 0.27 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.38 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1778 | 1796 | 1790 | 1784.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -118.8 | -101.41 | -99 | -102.88 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 15 | 16 | 20 | 17.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 10 | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low |
| Friday, August 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 13:45 | US | Chicago PMI | 57.6 | 57 | 63.10 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 1 Year Inflation Expectations | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4.3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51 | 55.2 | 51 | 51.00 | High |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 50.6 | 55.4 | 50.6 | 50.60 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.8 | 54.8 | 51.8 | 51.80 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 17 | 14 | 15.50 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 9 | 8 | 9.00 | Low | |