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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
IsraelIsrael Budget Balance fell to -10B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Israel Budget Balance fell to -10B in September 2026, released October 2026, down 2B from August's -8B reading.
Latest Release
-10.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
-8.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Budget Balance (Israel) was reported at -10.00 billion in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of -8.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.67 billion, ranging from -24.00 billion to 17.00 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -7.67 billion, down from the prior three at -6.67 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 9.19 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 12.08 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Oct 21).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Budget Balance - IL
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About Budget Balance — Israel
DEFINITION
Budget Balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and total expenditure over a specific period of time. It provides insight into the fiscal health of a country or organization, indicating whether there is a surplus or deficit in their budget. This indicator is crucial in determining the government's ability to meet its financial obligations and make strategic decisions for future spending. A positive budget balance indicates a healthy financial position, while a negative balance may signal potential financial challenges.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -10 M. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -8 M. Before that (Jul 2026): -5 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with EUR/USD (Bullish EUR, r=0.88) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - IL Events
| Tuesday, October 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | IL | Consumer Confidence | -20.37 | -22.22 | -20 | -20.19 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | IL | Exports | 5344 | 4100 | 4100.00 | Low | |
| 10:00 | IL | Imports | 11138.4 | 8500 | 8500.00 | Low | |
| 10:00 | IL | Balance of Trade | -5794.4 | -4400 | -4400.00 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Low | |
| 15:30 | IL | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.70 | Low | |