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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UkraineUkraine GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.1% in October 2024
FMPQuarterlyReleased March 2025
Ukraine GDP Growth Rate YoY fell to -0.1% in October 2024, released March 2025, down 2.3% from September's 2.2% reading. The reading missed the 2.2% consensus by 2.3%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 4.82%. GDP Growth Rate YoY is now the lowest in 15 months.
Latest Release
-0.1
Actual
2.2
Consensus
2.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.85 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Mar 2025
Predicted: 2.2
Actual: -0.1
Error: +2.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
GDP Growth Rate YoY (Ukraine) was reported at -0.1% in March 2025. This missed the market consensus of 2.2% by 2.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.2%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update March 2025.
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GDP Growth Rate YoY - UA
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About GDP Growth Rate YoY — Ukraine
DEFINITION
The GDP Growth Rate YoY (Year-over-Year) is a key economic indicator that measures the annual change in a country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It provides insight into the overall health and performance of an economy, as a higher growth rate indicates a stronger and more robust economy. This indicator is closely monitored by policymakers, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions and assess the current and future economic outlook. A positive GDP Growth Rate YoY is generally seen as a positive sign of economic growth and stability, while a negative growth rate may indicate a slowdown or recession.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Aggregate growth figures anchor cyclical positioning across asset classes and inform fiscal and monetary policy debate. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released quarterly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2024): actual -0.1 %, consensus 2.2 %. Prior reading (Oct 2024): -0.1 %. Before that (Apr 2024): 3.7 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.