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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Business Confidence climbed to 18.4% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Bulgaria Business Confidence climbed to 18.4% in May 2026, up 6.0% from April's 12.4% reading. The print exceeded the 11.7% consensus by 6.7%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 16.08%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 13.7%, vs 14.77% in the prior 3-month window. Business Confidence is now the highest in 7 months.
Latest Release
18.4
Actual
11.7
Consensus
12.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.99 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 12.2
Actual: 18.4
Error: -6.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Bulgaria) was reported at 18.4% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 11.7% by 6.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 12.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.43%, ranging from 12.5% to 18.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 16.57%, up from the prior three at 14.2%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.92%) is lower than the prior year (σ 3.34%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 20.67%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with GBP/USD (Bullish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.99%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Business Confidence - BG
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About Business Confidence — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 18.4 %, consensus 11.7 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 12.4 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 15 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.