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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Business Confidence fell to 16.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Bulgaria Business Confidence fell to 16.3% in August 2026, down 0.9% from July's 17.2% reading. The reading matched the 16.9% consensus. Year-over-year, the indicator is down 2.0%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 16.65%, vs 15.27% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
16.3
Actual
16.9
Consensus
17.2
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.77 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 16.6
Actual: 16.3
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Bulgaria) was reported at 16.3% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 16.9% by 0.6%. The reading fell from the previous value of 17.2%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.02%, ranging from 12.5% to 18.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 16.53%, down from the prior three at 16.57%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.68%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 1.72%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 19.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.78%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Business Confidence - BG
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About Business Confidence — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 16.3 %, consensus 16.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 17.2 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 16.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 5.1 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.10 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low |