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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Business Confidence climbed to 17.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Bulgaria Business Confidence climbed to 17.2% in July 2026, up 1.1% from June's 16.1% reading. The reading matched the 16.5% consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 15.9%. Over the past 3 months, Business Confidence averaged 17.25%, vs 14.57% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 48th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
17.2
Actual
16.5
Consensus
16.1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.11 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 17.7
Actual: 17.2
Error: +0.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.26 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Business Confidence (Bulgaria) was reported at 17.2% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 16.5% by 0.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of 16.1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 16.2%, ranging from 12.5% to 18.8% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 17.23%, up from the prior three at 15.6%. Volatility over the past year (σ 1.8%) is lower than the prior year (σ 2.44%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Business Confidence has averaged 19.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.11%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Business Confidence - BG
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About Business Confidence — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Business Confidence is a financial indicator that measures the level of optimism or pessimism among business owners and managers about the current and future state of the economy. It is often used as a gauge of overall economic health and can impact investment decisions, hiring practices, and consumer spending. A high level of business confidence indicates a positive outlook and potential for growth, while a low level may signal caution and potential economic downturn. This indicator is closely monitored by economists, policymakers, and investors to assess the overall sentiment and potential direction of the business sector.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 17.2 %, consensus 16.5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 16.1 %. Before that (May 2026): 18.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BG Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.7 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index MoM | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.45 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Business Confidence | 17.2 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.85 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Producer Price Index YoY | 17.1 | 17.5 | 17.3 | 17.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | BG | Inflation Rate YoY | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 4.30 | Low |