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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BulgariaBulgaria Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Bulgaria Industrial Production MoM climbed to 0.7% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 3.6% from July's -2.9% reading. The reading missed the 1.9% consensus by 1.2%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.3%. Over the past 3 months, Industrial Production MoM averaged -1.3%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 77th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.7
Actual
1.9
Consensus
-2.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.03
Actual: 0.7
Error: +0.32
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.71 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Industrial Production MoM (Bulgaria) was reported at 0.7% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.9% by 1.2%. The reading rose from the previous value of -2.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.95%, ranging from -4.6% to 3.3% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.63%, up from the prior three at -2.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.16%) is higher than the prior year (σ 1.32%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Industrial Production MoM has averaged 0.47%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with XAU/USD, positively correlated (Bullish XAU). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 1.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 10, 2026.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Industrial Production MoM - BG
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About Industrial Production MoM — Bulgaria
DEFINITION
Industrial Production MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total output of the manufacturing, mining, and utilities sectors within a specific country or region over a one-month period. This indicator provides valuable insights into the health and growth of the industrial sector, which is a crucial component of a country's overall economic performance. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it can impact inflation, employment, and consumer spending. A positive MoM change in industrial production indicates a growing economy, while a negative change may signal a slowdown or contraction.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.7 %, consensus 1.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.71) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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