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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 0.68% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
USD/ALL's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±0.5% over 7 days, widening to ±0.9% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 59.8% (82 forecast-days · n_eff=5 independent windows) · CI 23–88% · as of 30 Oct 2026 · n_eff as of 28 Oct 2026 → full record
Across 82 graded 14-day forecast-days since 27 Jul 2026 (5 independent windows), USD/ALL's expected-range band contained price 59.8% of the time (95% CI 23–88%; stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, USD/ALL is trading at 81.5079. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The USD/ALL forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Albanian Lek. The USD/ALL pair closed at 81.5079 on October 31, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.17% from the previous close of 81.3734.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a sideways movement with a decline of 0.10%, ranging between 80.6234 and 82.2310. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 81.2901. The 14-day RSI stands at 56.5, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.29%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Over the past 52 weeks, USD/ALL traded between 78.8450 (Aug 21, 2026) and 84.1222 (Mar 14, 2026); the current price sits 3.1% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 0.29% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. USD/ALL is currently trading 0.27% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 56.5, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (IL) (r=+0.96), Budget Balance (IL) (r=+0.92)
Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) (r=-0.98), Russian Forex Intervention (RU) (r=-0.91), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (SA) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AZ) (r=-0.89), Business Confidence (RU) (r=-0.88)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.