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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Factory Orders ex Transportation fell to 0.3% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Factory Orders ex Transportation fell to 0.3% in August 2026, released October 2026, down 0.4% from July's 0.7% reading. The print exceeded the 0.2% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.53%. Over the past 3 months, Factory Orders ex Transportation averaged 0.1%, vs 1.37% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 52nd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.3
Actual
0.2
Consensus
0.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.39 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.08
Actual: 0.3
Error: -0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.56 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Factory Orders ex Transportation (United States) was reported at 0.3% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.2% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from -0.4% to 1.3% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.46%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.3%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.39%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 3, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Factory Orders ex Transportation - US
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About Factory Orders ex Transportation — United States
DEFINITION
Factory Orders ex Transportation is a key economic indicator that measures the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers, excluding the volatile transportation sector. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for goods and services from businesses and consumers. By excluding transportation, which can be heavily influenced by factors such as oil prices and aircraft orders, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a gauge of economic health and potential future growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.3 %, consensus 0.2 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.6 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |