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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Factory Orders ex Transportation fell to 1.3% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Factory Orders ex Transportation fell to 1.3% in April 2026, released June 2026, down 0.5% from March's 1.8% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.5%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.38%. Over the past 3 months, Factory Orders ex Transportation averaged 1.07%, vs 0.13% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 93rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
1.3
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.27 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jun 2026
Predicted: 0.9
Actual: 1.3
Error: -0.4
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.91 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.88 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.78 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Factory Orders ex Transportation (United States) was reported at 1.3% in June 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.41%, ranging from -0.2% to 1.3% across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.7%, up from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In June readings over the past 3 years, Factory Orders ex Transportation has averaged 0.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, positively correlated (Bullish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.27%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Factory Orders ex Transportation - US
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About Factory Orders ex Transportation — United States
DEFINITION
Factory Orders ex Transportation is a key economic indicator that measures the total value of new orders placed with manufacturers, excluding the volatile transportation sector. This indicator provides valuable insight into the strength of the manufacturing sector and overall economic activity, as it reflects the demand for goods and services from businesses and consumers. By excluding transportation, which can be heavily influenced by factors such as oil prices and aircraft orders, this indicator offers a more accurate representation of underlying economic trends. It is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and analysts as a gauge of economic health and potential future growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Manufacturing and factory-order series capture cyclical inflection earlier than aggregate output, and have outsized influence on industrial-sector equities. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 1.3 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 1.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC, r=0.91) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |