WTI Crude Oil (WTI/USD) Commodity Forecast — Price & Market Analysis

WTI/USD

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November 05, 2026
Market Closed
—
Actual
October 05, 2026
87.20
1 Month Ago
November 05, 2025
60.44
1 Year Ago
52W HIGH
118.83
· Mar 9, 2026
52W LOW
54.90
· Dec 17, 2025
Highest close in our data
123.80
· Jun 2022coverage since 2020

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WTI/USD · COMMODITIES
14-DAY FORECAST · 11/19/26

Forecast data unavailable for this horizon.

Outcome legend
Magnitude · primary
How big was the move vs the forecast band?
+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency
—efficiency not yet computed for this trade
Zone
Did price stay inside the expected band?
CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band
BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound
BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound
· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·
Magnitude· primary
—conviction

— insufficient model data

—

backtest — refresh paused (#568)

Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.

Alignment· context only
2H down1D up1W up

Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.

Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.

Descriptive — does not size the band.

Expected Range· 7–28d calibrated zone
Forecast batch: 11/5/26
Premium not graded

Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited.

Containment record withheld on 2 Nov 2026 (DC-001): commodity price bars carry Australia/Sydney local timestamps stored as UTC, so graded outcomes were computed against misdated bars. It returns when the timestamp fix lands and the rows re-settle.

As of November 5, 2026, WTI/USD is trading at . Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this commodity generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

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SETUP

Crude Oil WTI Spot (WTI/USD) is a commodity instrument tracked by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The WTI/USD commodity closed at 89.4047 on November 5, 2026, reflecting a decline of 5.49% from the previous close of 94.5996.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the commodity has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 3.26%, ranging between 86.3082 and 105.07. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 100.33. The 14-day RSI stands at 33.1, in the lower part of its range.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 2.31%, reflecting typical price variability for this commodity. Over the past 52 weeks, WTI/USD traded between 54.9000 (Dec 17, 2025) and 118.83 (Mar 9, 2026); the current price sits 24.8% below the 52-week high.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 2.31% runs elevated for this commodity, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. WTI/USD is currently trading 10.89% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 33.1, currently in neutral territory.

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (IL) (r=+0.96), Budget Balance (IL) (r=+0.92), CPI Shelter (US) (r=+0.88)

Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) (r=-0.98), Russian Forex Intervention (RU) (r=-0.91), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (SA) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AZ) (r=-0.89)

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

About WTI/USD

COMPANY OVERVIEW

CL1 refers to the front-month NYMEX Light Sweet Crude Oil futures contract, also known as WTI (West Texas Intermediate). It is the most actively traded crude oil futures contract globally and the primary benchmark for North American oil prices. Each contract represents 1,000 barrels of crude oil deliverable in Cushing, Oklahoma.

KEY FUNDAMENTALS

Underlying
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil
Exchange
NYMEX (CME Group)
Contract size
1,000 barrels
Delivery
Cushing, Oklahoma

WHAT MOVES WTI/USD

CL1 is driven by global oil supply and demand fundamentals: OPEC+ production decisions, US shale output and rig counts, weekly EIA inventory data, geopolitical risk premiums (Middle East, Russia/Ukraine), USD strength (inverse correlation), and demand expectations tied to global GDP forecasts.

CATALYST CALENDAR

  • EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    weekly (Wednesday)high
  • OPEC+ ministerial meeting
    monthly (variable)high
  • API weekly inventory estimate
    weekly (Tuesday)medium

FAQ

What is WTI?
West Texas Intermediate, a grade of crude oil used as the primary benchmark for US oil prices.
How is CL1 different from spot WTI?
CL1 is the front-month futures contract (deliverable in the nearest expiry month); spot WTI references the physical-delivery cash price.