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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Market-data read
USD/IDR reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.35 / 0.11 / 0.03). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±0.8% / ±1.0% / ±1.5% (7/14/28d).
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Inflation Rate MoM (r=+0.69), Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.57), Imports YoY (r=+0.48)
Inversely correlated: Tourist Arrivals YoY (r=-0.74), Interest Rate Decision (r=-0.52), Lending Facility Rate (r=-0.52), Deposit Facility Rate (r=-0.50), Consumer Confidence (r=-0.47)
As of August 1, 2026, USD/IDR is trading at 18024.3043. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this forex pair generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecast data unavailable for this horizon.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Market-data read
The USD/IDR forex pair tracks the exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Indonesian Rupiah. The USD/IDR pair closed at 18,024.30 on August 1, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.22% from the previous close of 18,064.12.
Over the past 30 days, the pair has experienced a sideways movement with a rally of 0.27%, ranging between 17,853.69 and 18,720.04. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 17,999.41. The 14-day RSI stands at 53.0, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum. Among macroeconomic indicators in our coverage, Tourist Arrivals YOY shows the strongest historical relationship with this instrument, negatively correlated (r = -0.74).
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.28%, reflecting subdued price variability for this pair. Across the past 52 weeks, the pair has traded between 16,460.39 and 18,720.04, with the current price near the midrange of that range.
Daily-return volatility of 0.28% is subdued for this pair, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. USD/IDR is currently trading 0.14% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 53.0, currently in neutral territory. For cross-confirmation, the Tourist Arrivals YOY indicator carries the strongest historical correlation with USD/IDR (r = -0.74) and is worth watching for context.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.