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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey CPI YoY fell to 31.51% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Turkey CPI YoY fell to 31.51% in August 2026, released September 2026, down 0.24% from July's 31.75% reading. The reading matched expectations. CPI YoY has now declined for 3 consecutive months.
Latest Release
31.51
Actual
31.62
Consensus
31.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.25 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 31.64
Actual: 31.51
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI YoY (Turkey) was reported at 31.51% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 31.62% by 0.11%. The reading fell from the previous value of 31.75%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/TRY, negatively correlated (Bullish TRY).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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CPI YoY - TR
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About CPI YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's CPI YoY for August came in at 31.51%, slightly below the 31.62% estimate and down from July's 31.75%. This marks a continued easing in inflation pressures after July's peak, reflecting a modest deceleration in consumer price growth. Market focus remains on the central bank's next moves amid persistent high inflation. Updated 9/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 31.51 %, consensus 31.62 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 31.75 %. Before that (May 2026): 32.61 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |