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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to -0.3% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Turkey Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to -0.3% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 3.72% from June's -4.02% reading. The print exceeded the -5.0% consensus by 4.7%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of -0.09%. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged -3.8%, vs -2.17% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 46th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
-0.3
Actual
-5
Consensus
-4.02
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -5.65
Actual: -0.3
Error: -5.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Turkey) was reported at -0.3% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -5% by 4.7%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.02%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.13%, ranging from -9.44% to 4.99% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -2.63%, up from the prior three at -2.68%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.15%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.31%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged -1.04%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/TRY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Sep 21) and Consumer Confidence (Sep 22).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - TR
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -0.3 %, consensus -5 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -4.02 %. Before that (May 2026): -3.58 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Production YoY | -19.2 | -11 | -28.65 | Low | |
| 07:00 | TR | Auto Sales YoY | -25 | -15 | -27.25 | Low | |