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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 0.4% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Turkey Tourist Arrivals YoY climbed to 0.4% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.43% from August's -0.03% reading. The print exceeded the -0.1% consensus by 0.5%. Tourist Arrivals YoY has now risen for 4 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Tourist Arrivals YoY averaged -0.16%, vs -5.68% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 54th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
-0.1
Consensus
-0.03
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±4.51 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 1.42
Actual: -0.03
Error: +1.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.32 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Tourist Arrivals YoY (Turkey) was reported at 0.4% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.1% by 0.5%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.03%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.32%, ranging from -9.44% to 4.99% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -1.45%, up from the prior three at -5.03%. Volatility over the past year (σ 4.09%) is lower than the prior year (σ 6.31%). In September readings over the past 3 years, Tourist Arrivals YoY has averaged 1.5%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 4.52%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 23, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Inflation Rate MoM (Nov 3) and Inflation Rate YoY (Nov 3).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Tourist Arrivals YoY - TR
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About Tourist Arrivals YoY — Turkey
DEFINITION
Tourist Arrivals YoY is a financial indicator that measures the year-over-year change in the number of tourists visiting a particular destination. It provides valuable insights into the growth or decline of tourism in a specific location, which can have a significant impact on the local economy. This indicator is often used by businesses and governments to track the performance of the tourism industry and make informed decisions regarding marketing strategies, investment opportunities, and policy changes.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus -0.1 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -0.03 %. Before that (Jul 2026): -0.3 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - TR Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:00 | TR | Economic Confidence Index | 97.3 | 101.3 | 101 | 99.15 | Low |
| 07:00 | TR | Tourism Revenues | 25.5 | 15.9 | 27 | 26.25 | Low |
| 08:00 | TR | Tourist Arrivals YoY | 0.4 | -0.03 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Low |
| Monday, November 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 07:00 | TR | Istanbul Chamber of Industry Manufacturing PMI | 47.9 | 48 | 48.10 | Low | |