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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
TurkeyTurkey CPI MoM climbed to 4.18% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Turkey CPI MoM climbed to 4.18% in April 2026, released May 2026, up 2.24% from March's 1.94% reading. The print came in hotter than the 3.28% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 1.94%.
Latest Release
4.18
Actual
3.28
Consensus
1.94
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish TRY | → View |
| EUR/TRY | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bullish TRY | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Turkey) was reported at 4.18% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.28% by 0.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of 1.94%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through April 2026.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/TRY, negatively correlated (Bullish TRY).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 5, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include GDP Growth Rate QoQ (Jun 1) and GDP Growth Rate YoY (Jun 1).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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CPI MoM - TR
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About CPI MoM — Turkey
DEFINITION
Turkey's CPI MoM surged to 4.180000% in May, sharply beating the 3.280000% estimate. This marks a significant acceleration from April's 1.940000%, indicating a rapid rise in monthly inflation. The sharp increase pressures the central bank to maintain a tight monetary stance amid persistent inflation risks. Updated 5/4/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4.18 %, consensus 3.28 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary headwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/TRY (Bullish TRY, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.