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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
KazakhstanKazakhstan Interest Rate Decision fell to 16.25% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Kazakhstan Interest Rate Decision fell to 16.25% in September 2026, down 0.5% from August's 16.75% reading. The reading matched the 16.5% consensus. Interest Rate Decision has now declined for 4 consecutive months. Interest Rate Decision is now the lowest in 18 months.
Latest Release
16.25
Actual
16.5
Consensus
16.75
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.22 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 16.38
Actual: 16.25
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.63 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Interest Rate Decision (Kazakhstan) was reported at 16.25% in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 16.5% by 0.25%. The reading fell from the previous value of 16.75%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 17.33%, ranging from 16.25% to 18% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 16.67%, down from the prior three at 18%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.7%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.82%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC). A secondary relationship exists with GBP/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish GBP). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.22%.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Interest Rate Decision - KZ
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About Interest Rate Decision — Kazakhstan
DEFINITION
The Interest Rate Decision is a key financial indicator that reflects the decision made by a central bank or monetary authority to either increase, decrease, or maintain the current interest rates. This decision has a significant impact on the economy, as it affects the cost of borrowing money, inflation rates, and overall economic growth. Investors and businesses closely monitor interest rate decisions as they can have a significant impact on financial markets and investment strategies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Policy-rate decisions and associated communication are the primary near-term driver of front-end rates, currencies, and equity-discount-rate inputs. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 16.25 %, consensus 16.5 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 16.75 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 17 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with BTC/USD (Bearish BTC, r=-0.63) — a useful reference for crypto-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - KZ Events
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07:50 | KZ | Industrial Production YoY | 1 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.05 | Low |