Urals Oil (URALS/USD) Commodity Forecast — Price & Market Analysis
URALS/USD
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— insufficient model data
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backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited.
Containment record withheld on 2 Nov 2026 (DC-001): commodity price bars carry Australia/Sydney local timestamps stored as UTC, so graded outcomes were computed against misdated bars. It returns when the timestamp fix lands and the rows re-settle.
As of November 5, 2026, URALS/USD is trading at . Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this commodity generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
Urals Crude Oil Spot (URALS/USD) is a commodity instrument tracked by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The URALS/USD commodity closed at 85.4136 on November 5, 2026, reflecting a decline of 7.31% from the previous close of 92.1451.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the commodity has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 29.65%, ranging between 85.3544 and 129.23. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 105.04. The 14-day RSI stands at 26.8, in oversold territory.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 3.81%, reflecting heightened price variability for this commodity. Over the past 52 weeks, URALS/USD traded between 49.2200 (Jan 6, 2026) and 129.23 (Oct 10, 2026); the current price sits 33.9% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 3.81% runs elevated for this commodity, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. URALS/USD is currently trading 18.69% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 26.8, currently in oversold territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Composite Economic Index MoM (IL) (r=+0.96), Budget Balance (IL) (r=+0.92), CPI Shelter (US) (r=+0.88)
Inversely correlated: Bundesanleihe Auction (AT) (r=-0.98), Russian Forex Intervention (RU) (r=-0.91), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (SA) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AZ) (r=-0.89)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.