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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 60.9 in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders climbed to 60.9 in August 2026, released September 2026, up 3.7 from July's 57.2 reading. The print exceeded the 56 consensus by 4.9.
Latest Release
60.900000
Actual
56.000000
Consensus
57.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.9
across last 11 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 56.65
Actual: 60.9
Error: -4.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.46 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.39 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (United States) was reported at 60.90 in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 56.00 by 4.90. The reading rose from the previous value of 57.20. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 56.76, ranging from 52.90 to 60.90 across 8 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 58.47, up from the prior three at 56.53. Volatility over the past year (σ 2.52) is comparable than the prior year (σ 2.51).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 11 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.90.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders - US
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About ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders — United States
DEFINITION
The ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders is a key financial indicator that measures the level of new orders placed in the non-manufacturing sector of the economy. This includes industries such as healthcare, retail, and transportation. It provides valuable insights into the overall health and growth of the non-manufacturing sector, which accounts for a significant portion of the country's economic activity. Investors and analysts closely monitor this indicator as it can signal potential changes in consumer demand and economic trends.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Sentiment surveys are forward-looking inputs that often lead hard data on output and hiring. Sharp swings can drive cross-asset repricing. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 60.9, consensus 56. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 57.2. Before that (May 2026): 57.3.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |