Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.5% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.5% in September 2026, released October 2026, down 1.1% from August's 1.6% reading. The reading missed the 0.7% consensus by 0.2%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.82%. Over the past 3 months, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air averaged 0.9%, vs 0.47% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 40th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.7
Consensus
1.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.54 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.8
Actual: 0.5
Error: +0.3
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.85 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.52 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (United States) was reported at 0.5% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.6%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.58%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.6% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.77%, up from the prior three at 0.47%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.71%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.82%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.54%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air - US
Loading chart data...
About Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air — United States
DEFINITION
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air is a financial indicator that measures the total value of new orders for goods, excluding defense and aircraft industries. This indicator provides insight into the strength of the overall economy by tracking consumer and business spending on non-military and non-aircraft goods. It is often used by economists and investors to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Jul 2026): 0.2 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.85) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |