Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.2% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.2% in July 2026, released August 2026, down 1.5% from June's 1.7% reading. The reading missed the 0.9% consensus by 0.7%. Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air averaged 1.25%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 33rd percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.2
Actual
0.9
Consensus
1.7
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.67 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.83
Actual: 0.2
Error: +0.63
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.89 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.69 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.62 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (United States) was reported at 0.2% in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.9% by 0.7%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.7%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.49%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.9%, up from the prior three at -0.17%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.67%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.78%). In August readings over the past 3 years, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.67%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
SHARE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air - US
Loading chart data...
About Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air — United States
DEFINITION
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air is a financial indicator that measures the total value of new orders for goods, excluding defense and aircraft industries. This indicator provides insight into the strength of the overall economy by tracking consumer and business spending on non-military and non-aircraft goods. It is often used by economists and investors to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.2 %, consensus 0.9 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (May 2026): 1.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.89) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |