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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.9% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to 0.9% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.0% from May's 1.9% reading. The print exceeded the 0.8% consensus by 0.1%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.67%. Over the past 3 months, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air averaged 1.27%, vs 0.4% in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 79th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.9
Actual
0.8
Consensus
1.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.68
Actual: 0.9
Error: -0.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.92 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (United States) was reported at 0.9% in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.1%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.58%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.6% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.47%, up from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.74%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air has averaged 0.4%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, negatively correlated (Bearish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air - US
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About Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air — United States
DEFINITION
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air is a financial indicator that measures the total value of new orders for goods, excluding defense and aircraft industries. This indicator provides insight into the strength of the overall economy by tracking consumer and business spending on non-military and non-aircraft goods. It is often used by economists and investors to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.9 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1.6 %. Before that (Apr 2026): -1.1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.92) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |