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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to -1.1% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air fell to -1.1% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 5.0% from March's 3.9% reading. The reading missed the 0.4% consensus by 1.5%. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.67%. Over the past 3 months, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air averaged 1.3%, vs 0.6% in the prior 3-month window. Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air is now the lowest in 11 months.
Latest Release
-1.1
Actual
0.4
Consensus
3.9
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.15
Actual: -1.1
Error: +1.25
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.70 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Bullish GOOGL | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (United States) was reported at -1.1% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.4% by 1.5%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.43%, ranging from -1.1% to 1.7% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.17%, down from the prior three at 0.7%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.79%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.63%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air has averaged -0.7%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, positively correlated (Bullish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.7%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air - US
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About Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air — United States
DEFINITION
Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air is a financial indicator that measures the total value of new orders for goods, excluding defense and aircraft industries. This indicator provides insight into the strength of the overall economy by tracking consumer and business spending on non-military and non-aircraft goods. It is often used by economists and investors to gauge the health of the manufacturing sector and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual -1.1 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 3.3 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.6 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.70) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.