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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026, released June 2026, up 399,966 Thousand Barrels/Day from April's 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
413758.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13792.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,792.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 58,160.11 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 147,160.00 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,550.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 125,722.98 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 199.45 Thousand Barrels/Day). In June readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 146,873.33 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 10) and Core PPI MoM (Sep 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Apr 2026): 13,967 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, September 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21:00 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -0.3 | -2.6 | -1.3 | -0.80 | Medium |
| Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales | 4.06 | 3.98 | 3.98 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Existing Home Sales MoM | -1.7 | -0.2 | -0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 30 | 35 | 38.50 | Low | |
| 16:00 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -4.45 | -1.4 | -1.40 | Medium | |
| Friday, September 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | CPI s.a | 332.81 | 334.14 | 334.14 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.20 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate YoY | 3.4 | 3.4 | 3.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | CPI | 333.92 | 334.85 | 334.85 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Current Conditions | 51.9 | 51.3 | 52.40 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Expectations | 51.5 | 50.5 | 53.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.00 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 51.7 | 51 | 52.45 | High | |
| 14:00 | US | Michigan Inflation Expectations | 4 | 3.9 | 3.80 | Low | |
| 18:00 | US | Monthly Budget Statement | -432 | -480 | -480.00 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Budget Balance | -432 | -202.5 | -202.50 | Medium | |