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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased April 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026, released April 2026, up 404,081 Thousand Barrels/Day from February's 13,934 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
418015.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13934.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.84 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.80 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.63 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 418,015.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in March 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,934.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 58,623.78 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 418,015.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 148,476.67 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,560.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 127,064.11 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 160.25 Thousand Barrels/Day). In April readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 148,265.00 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) surged to 410,638 K bbl/d in January 2026, a massive revision from December’s 13,656 K bbl/d. This 396,982 K bbl/d increase breaks the steady trend seen throughout 2025 and resets the baseline for US output. Energy markets reacted sharply, with volatility persisting as traders await further data clarifications. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 418,015 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 13,718 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Feb 2026): 13,697 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with XAU/USD (Bullish XAU, r=0.84) — a useful reference for commodities-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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