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Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) fell to 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) fell to 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026, released June 2026, down 399,966 Thousand Barrels/Day from April's 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
13792.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
413758.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.41 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 13,792.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 13,719.44 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 13,967.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 13,838.00 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,550.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 191.73 Thousand Barrels/Day) is comparable than the prior year (σ 199.45 Thousand Barrels/Day). In June readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 13,551.33 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, positively correlated (Bullish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 9) and API Crude Oil Stock Change (Sep 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
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About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Apr 2026): 13,967 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GBP/USD (Bearish GBP, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 99.3 | 98.95 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.77 | 3.709 | 3.71 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | 11.3 | 11.30 | Low | |