Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased June 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026, released June 2026, up 399,966 Thousand Barrels/Day from April's 13,792 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
413758.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13792.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.71 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.68 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.61 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,792.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 58,160.11 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 413,758.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 147,160.00 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,550.67 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 125,722.98 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 199.45 Thousand Barrels/Day). In June readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 146,873.33 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
SHARE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
Loading chart data...
About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 413,758 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (Apr 2026): 13,967 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bearish NZD, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |