Loading page content
Data from U.S. Energy Information Administration. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026
U.S. Energy Information AdministrationMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) climbed to 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026, released July 2026, up 418,427 Thousand Barrels/Day from May's 13,948 Thousand Barrels/Day reading.
Latest Release
432375.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
13948.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.77 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.73 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (United States) was reported at 432,375.00 Thousand Barrels/Day in June 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 13,948.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 60,226.44 Thousand Barrels/Day, ranging from 13,237.00 Thousand Barrels/Day to 432,375.00 Thousand Barrels/Day across 9 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 153,324.67 Thousand Barrels/Day, up from the prior three at 13,794.00 Thousand Barrels/Day. Volatility over the past year (σ 131,574.52 Thousand Barrels/Day) is higher than the prior year (σ 222.88 Thousand Barrels/Day). In July readings over the past 3 years, Crude Oil Production (Monthly) has averaged 153,098.00 Thousand Barrels/Day.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, positively correlated (Bullish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Crude Oil Production (Monthly) - US
Loading chart data...
About Crude Oil Production (Monthly) — United States
DEFINITION
US Crude Oil Production (Monthly) for May registered at 13714.000000 K bbl/d, down from April’s 13967 K bbl/d, marking a contraction in output. This decline follows a peak in April and signals a pullback after several months of relative stability. Market participants will watch upcoming inventory data and OPEC decisions for further supply cues. Updated 8/5/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Energy-supply and inventory data shape commodity-curve positioning and feed through to headline inflation and consumer-discretionary spending. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 432,375 Thousand Barrels/Day. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 13,844 Thousand Barrels/Day. Before that (May 2026): 13,755 Thousand Barrels/Day.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.77) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |