Cocoa Futures (CC1) Commodity Forecast — Price & Market Analysis
CC1
commoditiesCurrent Price
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 2.75% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
CC1's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±2.2% over 7 days, widening to ±3.4% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited.
Containment record withheld on 2 Nov 2026 (DC-001): commodity price bars carry Australia/Sydney local timestamps stored as UTC, so graded outcomes were computed against misdated bars. It returns when the timestamp fix lands and the rows re-settle.
As of November 5, 2026, CC1 is trading at 5455.26. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this commodity generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
Cocoa Futures (CC1) is a commodity instrument tracked by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The CC1 commodity closed at 5,203.14 on November 5, 2026, reflecting a decline of 3.37% from the previous close of 5,384.66.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the commodity has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 7.79%, ranging between 5,198.25 and 6,022.15. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 5,540.68. The 14-day RSI stands at 31.3, in the lower part of its range.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.76%, reflecting typical price variability for this commodity. Over the past 52 weeks, CC1 traded between 2,846.83 (Mar 2, 2026) and 6,817.87 (Sep 1, 2026); the current price sits 23.7% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.76% runs elevated for this commodity, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. CC1 is currently trading 6.09% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 31.3, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Total Vehicle Sales (US) (r=+0.83), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (US) (r=+0.75), Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (US) (r=+0.75), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), PPI Final Demand Ex Food Energy Trade (US) (r=-0.76), Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.75), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.