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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Imports climbed to 399.3B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
US Imports climbed to 399.3B in July 2026, released September 2026, up 10.8B from June's 388.5B reading. The reading matched the 399.7B consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 187.4B. Over the past 3 months, Imports averaged 391.65B, vs 209.47B in the prior 3-month window. Imports is now the highest in 11 months.
Latest Release
399.3
Actual
399.7
Consensus
388.5
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±8.53 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 399.75
Actual: 399.3
Error: +0.45
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.58 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports (United States) was reported at 399.30 billion in September 2026. This missed the market consensus of 399.70 billion by 0.40 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 388.50 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 425.25 billion, ranging from -3.11 billion to 4,628.09 billion across 37 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 394.20 billion, down from the prior three at 1,794.40 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,180.57 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,590.78 billion). In September readings over the past 3 years, Imports has averaged 124.05 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AAPL, positively correlated (Bullish AAPL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 8.53 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Imports - US
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About Imports — United States
DEFINITION
US Imports of Goods & Services rose to 4134.288000 billion USD in September 2025, up from August’s 4123.437000 billion. The 0.26% month-over-month increase signals a modest uptick but remains below January’s peak of 4558.265000 billion, reflecting steady but subdued trade activity. Market reaction was muted, with investors focusing on broader macro data and upcoming earnings. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4,628.1 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4,328.7 M. Before that (Oct 2025): 4,135.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.67) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |