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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Imports climbed to 420.8B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Imports climbed to 420.8B in August 2026, released October 2026, up 17.2B from July's 403.6B reading. The reading matched the 416.8B consensus. Imports has now risen for 3 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, Imports averaged 393.65B, vs 388.25B in the prior 3-month window. Imports is now the highest in 12 months.
Latest Release
420.8
Actual
416.8
Consensus
403.6
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.46 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 417.45
Actual: 420.8
Error: -3.35
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.67 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.53 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▲ Direct | +0.49 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Imports (United States) was reported at 420.80 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 416.80 billion by 4.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 403.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 389.29 billion, ranging from -1.71 billion to 4,674.91 billion across 31 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 402.70 billion, up from the prior three at 383.47 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 1,093.55 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 1,518.11 billion). In October readings over the past 3 years, Imports has averaged 1,009.35 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with MSFT (Bullish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.46 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Imports - US
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About Imports — United States
DEFINITION
US Imports of Goods & Services rose to 4134.288000 billion USD in September 2025, up from August’s 4123.437000 billion. The 0.26% month-over-month increase signals a modest uptick but remains below January’s peak of 4558.265000 billion, reflecting steady but subdued trade activity. Market reaction was muted, with investors focusing on broader macro data and upcoming earnings. Updated 4/3/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 4,674.9 M. Prior reading (Jan 2026): 4,328.7 M. Before that (Oct 2025): 4,135.6 M.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bullish MSFT, r=0.67) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |