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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS New Home Sales fell to 0.68M in September 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased October 2026
US New Home Sales fell to 0.68M in September 2026, released October 2026, down 0.0M from August's 0.68M reading. The reading matched the 0.65M consensus. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.44M. Over the past 3 months, New Home Sales averaged 0.65M, vs 0.97M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 58th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.676
Actual
0.65
Consensus
0.68
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.93 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 0.16
Actual: 0.68
Error: -0.52
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.36 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.34 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.29 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Home Sales (United States) was reported at 0.68 million in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.65 million by 0.03 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.68 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 404.50 million, ranging from -1.70 million to 764.00 million across 18 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 225.79 million, down from the prior three at 227.40 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 324.42 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 335.93 million). In October readings over the past 3 years, New Home Sales has averaged 318.10 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2.93 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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New Home Sales - US
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About New Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
New Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold during a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the strength of the housing market and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. It is often considered a leading indicator, as an increase in new home sales can indicate future economic growth and consumer confidence. Investors, policymakers, and real estate professionals closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market and its potential impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 676 Thousands. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 680 Thousands. Before that (Jul 2026): 643 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |