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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS New Home Sales fell to 0.61M in July 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased August 2026
US New Home Sales fell to 0.61M in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.07M from June's 0.68M reading. The reading matched the 0.62M consensus. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 1.0M. Over the past 3 months, New Home Sales averaged 1.11M, vs 0.63M in the prior 3-month window. The reading is in the 24th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.607
Actual
0.62
Consensus
0.678
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.71 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 6.64
Actual: 0.61
Error: +6.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Home Sales (United States) was reported at 0.61 million in August 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.62 million by 0.01 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.68 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 408.66 million, ranging from -1.70 million to 764.00 million across 16 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 203.07 million, down from the prior three at 432.21 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 318.76 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 335.16 million). In August readings over the past 3 years, New Home Sales has averaged 279.95 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with GOOGL, negatively correlated (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.71 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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New Home Sales - US
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About New Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
New Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold during a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the strength of the housing market and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. It is often considered a leading indicator, as an increase in new home sales can indicate future economic growth and consumer confidence. Investors, policymakers, and real estate professionals closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market and its potential impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 607 Thousands. Prior reading (Jun 2026): 678 Thousands. Before that (May 2026): 618 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.51) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |