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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS New Home Sales fell to 0.62M in April 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased May 2026
US New Home Sales fell to 0.62M in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.04M from March's 0.66M reading. The reading missed the 0.67M consensus by 0.05M. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.93M. The reading is in the 38th percentile of the trailing 24-month range.
Latest Release
0.622
Actual
0.67
Consensus
0.663
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.4 million
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -2.52
Actual: 0.62
Error: -3.14
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Bullish AUD | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.53 | FOREX | Bullish GBP | → View |
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.52 | STOCKS | Bullish AAPL | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Home Sales (United States) was reported at 0.62 million in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.67 million by 0.05 million. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.66 million. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 393.76 million, ranging from -1.70 million to 764.00 million across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 207.74 million, down from the prior three at 432.10 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 331.72 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 337.39 million). In May readings over the past 3 years, New Home Sales has averaged 258.80 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, positively correlated (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.40 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NAHB Housing Market Index (Jun 15) and Building Permits MoM (Jun 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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New Home Sales - US
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About New Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
New Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold during a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the strength of the housing market and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. It is often considered a leading indicator, as an increase in new home sales can indicate future economic growth and consumer confidence. Investors, policymakers, and real estate professionals closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market and its potential impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 622 Thousands. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 663 Thousands. Before that (Feb 2026): 635 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.59) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.