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Data from U.S. Census Bureau. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS New Home Sales climbed to 1.6% in June 2026
U.S. Census BureauMonthlyReleased July 2026
US New Home Sales climbed to 1.6% in June 2026, released July 2026, up 5.9% from May's -4.3% reading. The reading missed the 3.4% consensus by 1.8%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of 0.92%. Over the past 3 months, New Home Sales averaged 0.65%, vs -0.56% in the prior 3-month window. New Home Sales is now the highest in 14 months.
Latest Release
1.6
Actual
3.4
Consensus
-4.3
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±3.4 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 9.73
Actual: 1.6
Error: +8.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▲ Direct | +0.50 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| GBP/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.37 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
New Home Sales (United States) was reported at 1.6% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.4% by 1.8%. The reading rose from the previous value of -4.3%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 429.72 million, ranging from -1.70 million to 764.00 million across 17 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 210.07 million, down from the prior three at 414.86 million. Volatility over the past year (σ 319.94 million) is comparable than the prior year (σ 334.42 million). In July readings over the past 3 years, New Home Sales has averaged 270.36 million.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with MSFT (Bearish MSFT). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CHF, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 3.40 million.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 25, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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New Home Sales - US
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About New Home Sales — United States
DEFINITION
New Home Sales is a financial indicator that measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold during a given period of time. This indicator is used to assess the strength of the housing market and can provide valuable insights into the overall health of the economy. It is often considered a leading indicator, as an increase in new home sales can indicate future economic growth and consumer confidence. Investors, policymakers, and real estate professionals closely monitor this indicator to make informed decisions about the housing market and its potential impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 628 Thousands. Prior reading (May 2026): 618 Thousands. Before that (Apr 2026): 626 Thousands.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with MSFT (Bearish MSFT, r=-0.57) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |