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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Jobless Claims 4-Week Average fell to 207.5K in July 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased July 2026
US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average fell to 207.5K in July 2026, down 7.25K from June's 214.75K reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
207.500000
Actual
213.000000
Consensus
214.750000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±1.85 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 213.2
Actual: 207.5
Error: +5.7
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.49 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (United States) was reported at 203 thousand in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 210 thousand by 7 thousand. The reading fell from the previous value of 208 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 214 thousand, ranging from 58 thousand to 241 thousand across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 214 thousand, down from the prior three at 223 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 27 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 8 thousand). In July readings over the past 3 years, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average has averaged 226 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/CAD, positively correlated (Bullish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 6, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Employment Cost Index QoQ (Jul 31) and Employment Cost - Wages QoQ (Jul 31).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Jobless Claims 4-Week Average - US
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About Jobless Claims 4-Week Average — United States
DEFINITION
The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average is a widely used financial indicator that measures the average number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks. This data is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the health of the job market and overall economy. A lower average indicates a stronger job market, while a higher average may suggest economic instability. This indicator is often used to track trends and predict future employment levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 202.8 K, consensus 210 K. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 207.5 K. Before that (Jul 2026): 214.3 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.49) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.35 | High |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | -0.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.10 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 4.63 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 197 | 188 | 200 | 192.75 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.85 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.7 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.70 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.88 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1782 | 1789 | 1800 | 1786.75 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Gross Domestic Product QoQ | 1.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.90 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 202.75 | 207.75 | 210 | 205.06 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.18 | High |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 1.82 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.4 | 4.4 | 3.5 | 3.52 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.45 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 28 | 32 | 35 | 33.00 | Low |