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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Jobless Claims 4-Week Average climbed to 207.25K in September 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average climbed to 207.25K in September 2026, up 1.5K from August's 205.75K reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
207.250000
Actual
205.000000
Consensus
205.750000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.21 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 204.83
Actual: 207.25
Error: -2.42
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (United States) was reported at 207 thousand in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of 205 thousand by 2 thousand. The reading rose from the previous value of 206 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 211 thousand, ranging from 58 thousand to 241 thousand across 40 releases. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a weekly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 206 thousand, up from the prior three at 200 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 27 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 8 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average has averaged 227 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 10, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include OPEC Meeting (Sep 6) and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Sep 9).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Jobless Claims 4-Week Average - US
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About Jobless Claims 4-Week Average — United States
DEFINITION
The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average is a widely used financial indicator that measures the average number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks. This data is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the health of the job market and overall economy. A lower average indicates a stronger job market, while a higher average may suggest economic instability. This indicator is often used to track trends and predict future employment levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 207.3 K, consensus 205 K. Prior reading (Aug 2026): 205.5 K. Before that (Aug 2026): 204 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Friday, September 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings YoY | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3 | 3.05 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Participation Rate | 61.6 | 61.4 | 61.4 | 61.50 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Average Weekly Hours | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.3 | 34.35 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Average Hourly Earnings MoM | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Government Payrolls | 35 | -50 | -11 | 12.00 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Manufacturing Payrolls | 16 | 14 | 5 | 10.50 | Low |
| 12:30 | US | Non Farm Payrolls | 162 | 21 | 56 | 109.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.10 | High |
| 12:30 | US | Nonfarm Payrolls Private | 127 | 71 | 45 | 86.00 | High |
| 12:30 | US | U-6 Unemployment Rate | 7.7 | 7.9 | 8 | 7.85 | High |
| Tuesday, September 8, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 10:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 99.8 | 99.3 | 98.95 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.6 | 3.6 | 3.45 | Low | |
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.77 | 3.709 | 3.71 | Low | |
| 19:00 | US | Consumer Credit Change | 14.17 | 11.3 | 11.30 | Low | |