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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Jobless Claims 4-Week Average fell to 206K in September 2026
FMPWeeklyReleased September 2026
US Jobless Claims 4-Week Average fell to 206K in September 2026, down 1.5K from August's 207.5K reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
206.000000
Actual
206.000000
Consensus
207.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±2.21 thousand
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: 205.82
Actual: 206
Error: -0.18
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.47 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Jobless Claims 4-Week Average (United States) was reported at 206 thousand in September 2026. This matched the market consensus of 206 thousand exactly. The reading fell from the previous value of 208 thousand. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 210 thousand, ranging from 58 thousand to 240 thousand across 40 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 206 thousand, up from the prior three at 201 thousand. Volatility over the past year (σ 26 thousand) is higher than the prior year (σ 8 thousand). In September readings over the past 3 years, Jobless Claims 4-Week Average has averaged 225 thousand.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 2 thousand.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Jobless Claims 4-Week Average - US
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About Jobless Claims 4-Week Average — United States
DEFINITION
The Jobless Claims 4-Week Average is a widely used financial indicator that measures the average number of individuals who have filed for unemployment benefits over the past four weeks. This data is closely monitored by economists and investors as it provides insight into the health of the job market and overall economy. A lower average indicates a stronger job market, while a higher average may suggest economic instability. This indicator is often used to track trends and predict future employment levels.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Labor-market data shapes consumer-spending forecasts and is closely tracked by central banks assessing the output gap and wage-inflation pass-through. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released weekly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual 206 K, consensus 206 K. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 207.3 K. Before that (Aug 2026): 205.5 K.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with GOOGL (Bearish GOOGL, r=-0.47) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |