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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 279.2B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
US Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 279.2B in September 2026, released October 2026, up 307.1B from August's -27.9B reading. The print exceeded the 75.2B consensus by 204B.
Latest Release
279.200000
Actual
75.200000
Consensus
-27.900000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±97.92 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 36.98
Actual: 279.2
Error: -242.22
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.38 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (United States) was reported at 279.20 billion in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 75.20 billion by 204.00 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of -27.90 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 118.37 billion, ranging from -27.90 billion to 279.20 billion across 11 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 141.33 billion, up from the prior three at 139.03 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 99.07 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 87.27 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 97.93 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Initial Jobless Claims (Oct 29) and GDP Price Index QoQ (Oct 29).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Net Long-Term TIC Flows - US
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About Net Long-Term TIC Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Net Long-Term TIC Flows is a financial indicator that measures the inflow and outflow of long-term investments in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the country's overall economic health and the level of foreign investment in its financial markets. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact currency exchange rates, interest rates, and overall market stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 279.2 B, consensus 75.2 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -27.9 B. Before that (Jun 2026): 172.7 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bearish USD, r=-0.74) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, October 28, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.55 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.15 | Medium |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -134.9 | -132.07 | -130 | -132.45 | High |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | -1.462 | 1.675 | -0.9 | -1.18 | Low |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -1.892 | -3.061 | 0 | -0.95 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 3.87 | -2.952 | -0.9 | 1.49 | Medium |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4.00 | High |
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 194 | 199 | 197.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Price Index QoQ | 6.1 | 3.2 | 4.55 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.4 | 3.6 | 3.60 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.25 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3 | 3.1 | 3.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 197.75 | 197 | 193.38 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1728 | 1720 | 1711.00 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending QoQ | 3.8 | 3.9 | 5.30 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Sales QoQ | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.60 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Prices QoQ | 3.3 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Prices QoQ | 5 | 3.4 | 3.95 | Low | |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 77 | 75 | 71.50 | Low | |