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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 81.3B in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 81.3B in April 2026, released May 2026, up 24.3B from March's 57B reading.
Latest Release
81.300000
Actual
—
Consensus
57.000000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±84.86 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Mar 2026
Predicted: 19.0
Actual: 15.5
Error: +3.5
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (United States) was reported at 81.30 billion in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 57.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 99.39 billion, ranging from -7.80 billion to 259.40 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 41.60 billion, down from the prior three at 139.17 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 90.82 billion) is higher than the prior year (σ 75.38 billion). In May readings over the past 3 years, Net Long-Term TIC Flows has averaged 114.53 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/JPY (Bearish USD). A secondary relationship exists with NZD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish NZD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 84.86 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 18, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Jun 15) and Industrial Production MoM (Jun 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Net Long-Term TIC Flows - US
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About Net Long-Term TIC Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Net Long-Term TIC Flows is a financial indicator that measures the inflow and outflow of long-term investments in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the country's overall economic health and the level of foreign investment in its financial markets. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact currency exchange rates, interest rates, and overall market stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Mar 2026): actual 81.3 B. Prior reading (Feb 2026): 58.6 B. Before that (Jan 2026): 15.5 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/JPY (Bearish USD, r=-0.41) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.