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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Net Long-Term TIC Flows fell to 172.7B in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
US Net Long-Term TIC Flows fell to 172.7B in July 2026, released August 2026, down 58.5B from June's 231.2B reading. The print exceeded the 151.4B consensus by 21.3B.
Latest Release
172.700000
Actual
151.400000
Consensus
231.200000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±76.1 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 184.6
Actual: 172.7
Error: +11.9
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | ▲ Direct | +0.83 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.72 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.59 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▲ Direct | +0.59 | STOCKS | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.56 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (United States) was reported at 172.70 billion in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 151.40 billion by 21.30 billion. The reading fell from the previous value of 231.20 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 110.00 billion, ranging from 15.50 billion to 232.70 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 169.50 billion, up from the prior three at 41.60 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 80.49 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 81.77 billion). In August readings over the past 3 years, Net Long-Term TIC Flows has averaged 139.87 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with AAPL (Bullish AAPL). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 76.10 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 16, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15) and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Net Long-Term TIC Flows - US
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About Net Long-Term TIC Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Net Long-Term TIC Flows is a financial indicator that measures the inflow and outflow of long-term investments in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the country's overall economic health and the level of foreign investment in its financial markets. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact currency exchange rates, interest rates, and overall market stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 172.7 B, consensus 151.4 B. Prior reading (May 2026): 232.7 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 103.1 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with AAPL (Bullish AAPL, r=0.83) — a useful reference for stocks-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 3.8 | 3.809 | 3.81 | Low | |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | NY Empire State Manufacturing Index | 20.6 | 15 | 10.85 | High | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales MoM | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM | -0.3 | 0.5 | 0.50 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices YoY | 5.9 | 6 | 6.35 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales Ex Gas/Autos MoM | -0.2 | 0.1 | 0.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Sales YoY | 5 | 4.3 | 4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices MoM | -1.3 | -0.5 | -0.45 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Import Prices MoM | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Export Prices YoY | 8.2 | 7.5 | 7.90 | Low | |
| 14:00 | US | Business Inventories MoM | 0 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | NAHB Housing Market Index | 35 | 34 | 33.50 | Medium | |
| 14:00 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 4 | 4.00 | High | |
| 20:00 | US | Net Long-Term TIC Flows | 172.7 | 146.3 | 146.30 | Medium | |