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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 232.7B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
US Net Long-Term TIC Flows climbed to 232.7B in June 2026, released July 2026, up 127.9B from May's 104.8B reading. The print exceeded the 128B consensus by 104.7B.
Latest Release
232.700000
Actual
128.000000
Consensus
104.800000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±77.59 billion
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 142.05
Actual: 232.7
Error: -90.65
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.33 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Net Long-Term TIC Flows (United States) was reported at 232.70 billion in July 2026. This beat the market consensus of 128.00 billion by 104.70 billion. The reading rose from the previous value of 104.80 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 107.81 billion, ranging from 15.50 billion to 232.70 billion across 10 releases. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 139.03 billion, up from the prior three at 87.90 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 79.04 billion) is comparable than the prior year (σ 81.25 billion). In July readings over the past 3 years, Net Long-Term TIC Flows has averaged 145.83 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, positively correlated (Bullish AUD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 77.59 billion.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 17, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Personal Income MoM (Jul 30) and PCE Price Index MoM (Jul 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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Net Long-Term TIC Flows - US
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About Net Long-Term TIC Flows — United States
DEFINITION
Net Long-Term TIC Flows is a financial indicator that measures the inflow and outflow of long-term investments in the United States. It provides valuable insights into the country's overall economic health and the level of foreign investment in its financial markets. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it can impact currency exchange rates, interest rates, and overall market stability.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 232.7 B, consensus 128 B. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 103.1 B. Before that (Mar 2026): 81.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with NZD/USD (Bullish NZD, r=0.45) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Wednesday, July 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:30 | US | EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change | -7.167 | 2.011 | -1.3 | -4.23 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Gasoline Stocks Change | 0.007 | 0.765 | -0.7 | -0.35 | Medium |
| 14:30 | US | EIA Distillate Stocks Change | 1.062 | 1.395 | 0.2 | 0.63 | Low |
| 18:00 | US | Fed Interest Rate Decision | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | High |
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 14:30 | US | EIA Natural Gas Stocks Change | 32 | 35 | 34.50 | Low | |