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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.16% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM fell to -0.16% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.27% from March's 0.11% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.15% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated.
Latest Release
-0.160000
Actual
-0.150000
Consensus
0.110000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.09 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: -0.08
Actual: -0.16
Error: +0.08
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.51 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.31 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.28 | COMMODITIES | Bearish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM (Mexico) was reported at -0.16% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.15% by 0.01%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.11%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.2%, ranging from -0.16% to 0.62% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.24%, down from the prior three at 0.31%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.21%) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.2%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM has averaged -0.09%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.09%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM - MX
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About Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Inflation Rate MoM is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price level of goods and services in a given economy during the middle of the month compared to the previous month. It provides valuable insight into the current inflation trend and can help businesses and policymakers make informed decisions about pricing and monetary policies. This indicator is widely used by economists and investors to track inflation and its impact on the economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual -0.16 %, consensus -0.15 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 0.11 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.62 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.51) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.