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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.11% in April 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY fell to 4.11% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.42% from March's 4.53% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
4.110000
Actual
4.130000
Consensus
4.530000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 4.23
Actual: 4.11
Error: +0.11
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 4.11% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 4.13% by 0.02%. The reading fell from the previous value of 4.53%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.89%, ranging from 3.49% to 4.63% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.22%, up from the prior three at 3.65%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.38%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.58%). In May readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 4.37%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 25) and Balance of Trade (Jun 26).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY - MX
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About Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services over a 12-month period, specifically from the middle of one month to the middle of the same month in the previous year. It provides valuable insight into the overall rate of inflation and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions about their financial strategies. This indicator is widely used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of the economy and make adjustments as needed.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.11 %, consensus 4.13 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 4.53 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 4.63 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.