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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.62% in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY climbed to 3.62% in September 2026, released October 2026, up 0.2% from August's 3.42% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
3.620000
Actual
3.600000
Consensus
3.420000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 3.68
Actual: 3.62
Error: +0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.32 | CRYPTO | Moves with | → View |
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.29 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 3.62% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 3.6% by 0.02%. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.42%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.71%, ranging from 3.1% to 4.63% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.43%, down from the prior three at 3.95%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.44%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.38%). In October readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 3.98%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Bullish BTC). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Nov 3) and Consumer Confidence (Nov 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY - MX
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About Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services over a 12-month period, specifically from the middle of one month to the middle of the same month in the previous year. It provides valuable insight into the overall rate of inflation and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions about their financial strategies. This indicator is widely used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of the economy and make adjustments as needed.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 3.62 %, consensus 3.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 3.42 %. Before that (Aug 2026): 3.26 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Friday, October 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 3.2 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 2.85 | Medium |
| 12:00 | MX | GDP Growth Rate QoQ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.80 | Medium |