Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
MexicoMexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY fell to 3.1% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Mexico Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY fell to 3.1% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.45% from May's 3.55% reading. The reading matched expectations.
Latest Release
3.100000
Actual
3.120000
Consensus
3.550000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.13 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 3.11
Actual: 3.1
Error: +0.01
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/MXN | ▲ Direct | +0.66 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY (Mexico) was reported at 3.1% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 3.12% by 0.02%. The reading fell from the previous value of 3.55%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.77%, ranging from 3.1% to 4.63% across 9 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.95%, up from the prior three at 3.75%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.4%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.49%). In July readings over the past 3 years, Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY has averaged 4.09%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with USD/MXN (Bullish USD). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.13%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Business Confidence (Aug 3) and Consumer Confidence (Aug 4).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
SHARE
Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY - MX
Loading chart data...
About Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY — Mexico
DEFINITION
The Mid-month Inflation Rate YoY is a financial indicator that measures the change in the average price of goods and services over a 12-month period, specifically from the middle of one month to the middle of the same month in the previous year. It provides valuable insight into the overall rate of inflation and can help businesses and investors make informed decisions about their financial strategies. This indicator is widely used by economists and policymakers to monitor the health of the economy and make adjustments as needed.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 3.1 %, consensus 3.12 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 4.11 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 4.53 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/MXN (Bullish USD, r=0.66) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - MX Events
| Monday, August 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | MX | Business Confidence | 46.3 | 46.8 | 46.75 | Medium | |
| 15:00 | MX | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.3 | 51.5 | 50.70 | Low | |
| Tuesday, August 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | MX | Consumer Confidence | 43.8 | 44.1 | 44.10 | Medium | |