NIFTY 50 (^NSEI) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^NSEI
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— insufficient model data
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backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 68.7% (83 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 36–90% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 83 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^NSEI's expected-range band contained price 68.7% of the time (95% CI 36–90%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^NSEI is trading at 24986.40. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The NIFTY 50 (^NSEI) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^NSEI index closed at 24,938.90 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a gain of 1.64% from the previous close of 24,536.60.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 8.13%, ranging between 22,181.80 and 24,947.20. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 23,092.57. The 14-day RSI stands at 78.3, in overbought territory.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.06%, reflecting typical price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^NSEI traded between 22,181.80 (Oct 8, 2026) and 26,373.20 (Jan 5, 2026); the current price sits 5.4% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.06% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^NSEI is currently trading 8.00% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 78.3, currently in overbought territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Inflation Rate MoM (IN) (r=+0.67), WPI Fuel YoY (IN) (r=+0.64), WPI Inflation YoY (IN) (r=+0.51), Unemployment Rate (IN) (r=+0.40), Services PMI (IN) (r=+0.36), Manufacturing Output MoM (IN) (r=+0.36)
Inversely correlated: CPI (IN) (r=-0.79), HSBC Composite PMI (IN) (r=-0.67)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: India economic indicators
