MRNA Stock Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
MRNA
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View All Forecasts →Earnings (Nov 6) inside all horizons — premium not comparable to band.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
5 of 7 models in band
± 16.67% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent trend across 2H/1D/1W.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
MRNA's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±10.9% over 7 days, widening to ±25.6% over 28. Options screen fair at 7D while 14D and 28D screen cheap (VRP ≈ 0.83×).
Premium grade: 2026-11-05 05:06 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 58.8% (80 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 28–84% · as of 4 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 1 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 80 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), MRNA's expected-range band contained price 58.8% of the time (95% CI 28–84%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 5, 2026, MRNA is trading at 242.47. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this stock generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is a publicly traded stock covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The MRNA stock closed at 242.48 on November 5, 2026, reflecting a decline of 6.13% from the previous close of 258.31. MRNA is listed on the IEX.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the stock has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 21.91%, ranging between 179.53 and 260.62. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 223.45. The 14-day RSI stands at 60.8, in the upper part of its range.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 6.22%, reflecting heightened price variability for this stock. Over the past 52 weeks, MRNA traded between 22.2900 (Nov 21, 2025) and 258.72 (Nov 4, 2026); the current price sits 6.3% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 6.22% runs elevated for this stock, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. MRNA is currently trading 8.51% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 60.8, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Total Vehicle Sales (US) (r=+0.83), ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (US) (r=+0.75), Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (US) (r=+0.75), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), PPI Final Demand Ex Food Energy Trade (US) (r=-0.76), Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.75), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.