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Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Earnings (Nov 11) inside the 14D/28D windows — premium not comparable to band.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 4.10% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
TDG's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±2.7% over 7 days, widening to ±6.3% over 28.
Premium grade: 2026-10-31 05:08 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 84.4% (77 forecast-days · n_eff=7 independent windows) · CI 47–97% · as of 30 Oct 2026 · n_eff as of 28 Oct 2026 → full record
Across 77 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (7 independent windows), TDG's expected-range band contained price 84.4% of the time (95% CI 47–97%; stated rate: 80%).
As of October 31, 2026, TDG is trading at 1147.70. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this stock generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (TDG) is a publicly traded stock covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The TDG stock closed at 1,147.70 on October 30, 2026, reflecting a decline of 2.44% from the previous close of 1,176.46. TDG is listed on the VSE in Austria.
Over the past 30 days, the stock has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 3.47%, ranging between 1,077.83 and 1,185.60. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 1,124.49. The 14-day RSI stands at 54.5, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.37%, reflecting typical price variability for this stock. Over the past 52 weeks, TDG traded between 1,071.25 (Sep 16, 2026) and 1,463.03 (Jan 16, 2026); the current price sits 21.6% below the 52-week high.
Daily-return volatility of 1.37% is subdued for this stock, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. TDG is currently trading 2.06% above its 20-day moving average and sitting in the lower portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 54.5, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Total Vehicle Sales (US) (r=+0.83), Crude Oil Production (Monthly) (US) (r=+0.73), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72)
Inversely correlated: Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.85), 5-Year Note Auction (US) (r=-0.82), Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71), House Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.68)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Oct 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.