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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 5-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.18% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US 5-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.18% in May 2026, up 0.23% from April's 3.96% reading.
Latest Release
4.182000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.955000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | FOREX | Bearish USD | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.42 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Note Auction (United States) was reported at 4.18% in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.96%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.8%, ranging from 3.56% to 4.18% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.93%, up from the prior three at 3.71%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In May readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Note Auction has averaged 4.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Bearish USD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (Jun 17) and Retail Sales MoM (Jun 17).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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5-Year Note Auction - US
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About 5-Year Note Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Note Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for US Treasury notes with a maturity of 5 years. It is conducted by the US Department of the Treasury and provides insight into the current market sentiment towards government debt. This auction is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact interest rates and overall market conditions. A successful auction with high demand for the notes is seen as a positive sign for the economy, while a weak auction may signal potential concerns.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.182 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.955 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.98 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.