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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
United StatesUS 5-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.18% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
US 5-Year Note Auction climbed to 4.18% in May 2026, up 0.23% from April's 3.96% reading.
Latest Release
4.182000
Actual
—
Consensus
3.955000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.58 | INDEX | Bearish S&P 500 | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.44 | STOCKS | Bearish MSFT | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.41 | CRYPTO | Bearish BTC | → View |
| NZD/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | FOREX | Bullish NZD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.36 | COMMODITIES | Bullish XAU | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Note Auction (United States) was reported at 4.18% in May 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of 3.96%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 3.8%, ranging from 3.56% to 4.18% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 3.93%, up from the prior three at 3.71%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.18%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.26%). In May readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Note Auction has averaged 4.27%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with MSFT, negatively correlated (Bearish MSFT).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Bank Stress Test Results (Jun 24) and Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun 25).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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5-Year Note Auction - US
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About 5-Year Note Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Note Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for US Treasury notes with a maturity of 5 years. It is conducted by the US Department of the Treasury and provides insight into the current market sentiment towards government debt. This auction is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact interest rates and overall market conditions. A successful auction with high demand for the notes is seen as a positive sign for the economy, while a weak auction may signal potential concerns.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 4.182 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 3.955 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 3.98 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a similar reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.58) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Tuesday, June 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.7 | 55.1 | 54.8 | 55.25 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Services PMI | 51.3 | 50.7 | 51 | 51.15 | Medium |
| 13:45 | US | S&P Global Composite PMI | 52.2 | 51.5 | 50.8 | 51.50 | Medium |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index | 4 | 13 | 9 | 6.50 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Services Index | -1 | 14 | 11 | 5.00 | Low |
| 14:00 | US | Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index | 3 | 16 | 9 | 6.00 | Low |
| Thursday, June 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Chicago Fed National Activity Index | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.12 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders MoM | 7.9 | -4.3 | -4.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index MoM | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.30 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 226 | 225 | 225.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Income MoM | 0 | 0.4 | 0.40 | High | |
| 12:30 | US | Personal Spending MoM | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Transp MoM | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.70 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air | -1.1 | 0.6 | 0.60 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Continuing Jobless Claims | 1810 | 1800 | 1784.50 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Core PCE Price Index YoY | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Durable Goods Orders Ex Defense MoM | 8.1 | -3.9 | -3.90 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | Jobless Claims 4-Week Average | 223.25 | 226 | 225.25 | Low | |
| 12:30 | US | PCE Price Index YoY | 3.8 | 4 | 4.00 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Real Consumer Spending | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.40 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Composite Index | 8 | 6 | 10.00 | Low | |
| 15:00 | US | Kansas Fed Manufacturing Index | 9 | 7 | 11.50 | Low | |
| Friday, June 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.10 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance | -83.01 | -85.4 | -85.40 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | US | Goods Trade Balance Adv | -83 | -85.2 | -85.20 | Medium | |