United StatesUS 5-Year Note Auction fell to 4.85% in October 2026
US 5-Year Note Auction fell to 4.85% in October 2026, down 0.19% from September's 5.03% reading.
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Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Method: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.81 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.68 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| GOOGL | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
| MSFT | ▼ Inverse | −0.51 | STOCKS | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
5-Year Note Auction (United States) was reported at 4.85% in October 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 5.03%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 4.16%, ranging from 3.56% to 5.03% across 10 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 4.76%, up from the prior three at 4.19%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.48%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.24%). In October readings over the past 3 years, 5-Year Note Auction has averaged 4.2%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with AUD/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish AUD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 24, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Fed Schmid Speech (Nov 10) and Fed Bowman Speech (Nov 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
5-Year Note Auction - US
About 5-Year Note Auction — United States
DEFINITION
The 5-Year Note Auction is a financial indicator that measures the demand for US Treasury notes with a maturity of 5 years. It is conducted by the US Department of the Treasury and provides insight into the current market sentiment towards government debt. This auction is closely monitored by investors and analysts as it can impact interest rates and overall market conditions. A successful auction with high demand for the notes is seen as a positive sign for the economy, while a weak auction may signal potential concerns.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 4.845 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 5.033 %. Before that (Aug 2026, first reported): 4.393 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast is 4.99% (latest print 4.85%). The 3-month forecast is 5.28%. The projection is based on the indicator's own recent trend. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.81) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - US Events
| Monday, November 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Inventories MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.65 | Low |
| 15:00 | US | Wholesale Sales MoM | 2.8 | 2 | 1.1 | 1.95 | Low |
| 16:00 | US | Consumer Inflation Expectation | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.85 | Low |
| 16:30 | US | 3-Month Bill Auction | 4.06 | 4.04 | 4.009 | 4.03 | Low |
| Tuesday, November 10, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | US | NFIB Business Optimism Index | 97.8 | 97.9 | 97.7 | 98.30 | Low |
| 13:30 | US | CPI s.a | 337.48 | 336.3 | 337 | 337.17 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.33 | High |
| 13:30 | US | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.23 | High |
| 13:30 | US | CPI | 337.51 | 336.94 | 337.02 | 337.13 | High |
| 13:55 | US | Redbook YoY | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 9.70 | Low |
| 21:30 | US | API Crude Oil Stock Change | -5.267 | -1 | 3.79 | Medium | |
| Wednesday, November 11, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 19:00 | US | Budget Balance | -27 | -298 | -339.85 | Medium | |