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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
UkraineUkraine Trade Balance fell to -26.2B in September 2025
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2025
Ukraine Trade Balance fell to -26.2B in September 2025, released October 2025, down 3.6B from August's -22.6B reading.
Latest Release
-26.200000
Actual
—
Consensus
-22.600000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.28 | FOREX | Bullish EUR | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.25 | FOREX | Bullish USD | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Trade Balance (Ukraine) was reported at -26.20 billion in October 2025. The reading fell from the previous value of -22.60 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2025.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -22.43 billion, down from the prior three at -11.53 billion.
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2025.
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Trade Balance - UA
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About Trade Balance — Ukraine
DEFINITION
Trade balance is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a country's exports and imports of goods and services. It is an important measure of a country's economic health and can indicate whether a country is a net importer or exporter. A positive trade balance indicates that a country is exporting more than it is importing, while a negative trade balance indicates the opposite. This indicator is closely monitored by economists and policymakers as it can impact a country's currency value, inflation, and overall economic growth.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Trade-balance and tariff data inform exchange-rate fundamentals and feed directly into GDP via the net-exports channel. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2025): actual -26.2 B. Prior reading (Aug 2025): -26.2 B. Before that (Jul 2025): -22.6 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.