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Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.
Sigmacast expected range ± 1.4–3.4% · 7–28-day calibrated zone
Last Updated: 6/23/26
recent path character per horizon · descriptive, not a forecast
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Long-Term Unemployed (27+ weeks) (r=+0.97), All Car Sales (r=+0.94)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Shipments Index (r=-0.94), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.94), Philly Fed Prices Paid (r=-0.92), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate MoM (r=-0.92), NAB Business Confidence (r=-0.91)
As of June 23, 2026, ^TNX is trading at 4.49. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
medium-term trend: down · 1D · ER 0.04 · trailing 7d
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
The 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^TNX index closed at 4.4880 on June 23, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.44% from the previous close of 4.5080.
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 1.77%, ranging between 4.3780 and 4.6870. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 4.4842. The 14-day RSI stands at 51.4, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.01%, reflecting typical price variability for this index.
Daily-return volatility of 1.01% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^TNX is currently trading 0.08% above its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 51.4, currently in neutral territory.
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Jun 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.