What is the 10-Year Treasury Yield forecast?

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest 10-Year Treasury Yield forecast on this page.

What is the 10-Year Treasury Yield expected price range?

The 10-Year Treasury Yield expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are 10-Year Treasury Yield predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for 10-Year Treasury Yield and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^TNX move?

^TNX has an expected move of roughly ±1.5% over 7 days, ±2.4% over 14 days, ±3.7% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^TNX's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.12 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a choppy, range-bound path.

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

^TNX's band is still building its audit record. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close as its audit record builds. Horizon grades appear as each one's history matures — current status is below.

Market-data read

^TNX reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.13 / 0.12 / 0.28). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.5% / ±2.4% / ±3.7% (7/14/28d).

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.45

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.5/2.3/3.8%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.12

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.4/3.6/5.8%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 3.7%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.20

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±3.7/5.6/9.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)

^TNX

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

4.66

Actual

July 07, 2026

+1.55%

4.59

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+13.91%

4.09

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^TNX · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.4%range 4.5486 – 4.7694 · 14D

Upper / lower bound4.7694 / 4.5486

Outside-range leveloutside 4.5486 – 4.7694price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

The 10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^TNX index closed at 4.6600 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a decline of 0.21% from the previous close of 4.6700.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong uptrend with a rally of 6.61%, ranging between 4.3670 and 4.7470. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 4.6325. The 14-day RSI stands at 55.6, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.84%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 0.84% is subdued for this index, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. ^TNX is currently trading 0.59% above its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 55.6, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: United States economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

Market-data read

short-term trend: choppy · drifted down7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.5%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.45

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.5/2.3/3.8%

medium-term trend: choppy · flat14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.12

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.4/3.6/5.8%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 3.7%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.20

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±3.7/5.6/9.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (r=+0.99), All Car Sales (r=+0.94), Industrial Production YoY (r=+0.93), Consumer Confidence (r=+0.91), Mid-month Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=+0.91)

Inversely correlated: Trade Balance (r=-0.93), Inflation Expectations (r=-0.92), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.91)

^TNX

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

4.66

Actual

July 07, 2026

+1.55%

4.59

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+13.91%

4.09

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^TNX · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.4%range 4.5486 – 4.7694 · 14D

Upper / lower bound4.7694 / 4.5486

Outside-range leveloutside 4.5486 – 4.7694price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.84%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^TNX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^TNX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

10-Year Treasury Yield (^TNX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^TNX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^TNX

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT