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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI MoM climbed to 0.5% in July 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased August 2026
Canada CPI MoM climbed to 0.5% in July 2026, released August 2026, up 0.9% from June's -0.4% reading. The print came in hotter than the 0.4% consensus, a hotter print than forecasters anticipated. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.3%, vs 0.6% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
0.5
Actual
0.4
Consensus
-0.4
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 5 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: 0.37
Actual: 0.5
Error: -0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.91 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.74 | CRYPTO | Moves against | → View |
| S&P/TSX Composite | ▼ Inverse | −0.43 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| AUD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.5% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.4% by 0.1%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.4%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with BTC/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish BTC).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Gov Macklem Speech (Oct 16) and Housing Starts (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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CPI MoM - CA
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About CPI MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI MoM rose 0.50% in August, beating the 0.40% estimate and reversing July's -0.40% decline. August's 0.50% increase follows a contraction in July, signaling renewed inflationary pressure. Markets will closely watch upcoming data for further inflation trends amid central bank vigilance. Updated 8/17/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 0.5 %, consensus 0.4 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.4 %. Before that (May 2026): 1 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.91) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 81.9 | 80.7 | 81 | 81.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 174.6 | 176.2 | 161 | 167.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -1.6 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -1.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.30 | Low |
| Friday, October 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | CA | CFIB Business Barometer | 47.9 | 47 | 51.20 | Low | |
| 12:15 | CA | Housing Starts | 229 | 232.5 | 232.50 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Foreign Securities Purchases | 20.65 | 23.59 | 19.93 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | High | |
| Monday, October 19, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate YoY | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.35 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Core Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.20 | Low | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate YoY | 3 | 3.2 | 3.15 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Trimmed CPI YoY | 1.9 | 2 | 1.90 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Median CPI YoY | 2 | 2.2 | 2.10 | High | |
| 12:30 | CA | Inflation Rate MoM | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.30 | Medium | |
| 12:30 | CA | Common CPI YoY | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.70 | High | |