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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in June 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased July 2026
Canada CPI MoM fell to -0.4% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 1.4% from May's 1.0% reading. The print came in cooler than the -0.2% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.7%. Over the past 3 months, CPI MoM averaged 0.7%, vs 0.7% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
-0.4
Actual
-0.2
Consensus
1
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.2 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -0.2
Actual: -0.4
Error: +0.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Canada) was reported at -0.4% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -0.2% by 0.2%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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CPI MoM - CA
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About CPI MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI MoM for July fell by -0.400000%, missing the estimate of -0.200000% and reversing June's 1.000000% increase. This marks a sharp contraction in monthly inflation compared to the prior month’s expansion. Market focus will remain on Bank of Canada policy signals amid this unexpected cooling. Updated 7/21/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -0.4 %, consensus -0.2 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 1 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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