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Data from Statistics Canada. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada CPI MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026
Statistics CanadaMonthlyReleased May 2026
Canada CPI MoM fell to 0.4% in April 2026, released May 2026, down 0.5% from March's 0.9% reading. The print came in cooler than the 0.7% consensus, a softer print than forecasters anticipated. The print is running well below the 12-month average of 0.7%.
Latest Release
0.4
Actual
0.7
Consensus
0.9
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CAD | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
CPI MoM (Canada) was reported at 0.4% in May 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.7% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.9%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. This is classified as a medium-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 22, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Balance of Trade (Jun 9) and BoC Interest Rate Decision (Jun 10).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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CPI MoM - CA
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About CPI MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Canada's CPI MoM for May came in at 0.400000%, missing the 0.700000% estimate and down from April's 0.900000%. This slowdown indicates a deceleration in monthly inflation growth from April to May. Market participants will watch upcoming Bank of Canada communications closely for signals on monetary policy adjustments. Updated 5/19/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Apr 2026): actual 0.4 %, consensus 0.7 %. Prior reading (Mar 2026): 0.9 %. Before that (Feb 2026): 0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print. Current dynamics are the primary tailwind in the projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.