S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^GSPTSE
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
6 of 7 models in band
± 3.11% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
^GSPTSE's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±2.0% over 7 days, widening to ±4.8% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 86.7% (83 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 52–98% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 83 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^GSPTSE's expected-range band contained price 86.7% of the time (95% CI 52–98%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^GSPTSE is trading at 35789.09. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^GSPTSE index closed at 35,788.04 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.58% from the previous close of 35,580.64.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a sideways movement with a decline of 0.07%, ranging between 34,938.01 and 36,548.54. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 35,936.98. The 14-day RSI stands at 49.2, in neutral territory, indicating balanced momentum.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.05%, reflecting typical price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^GSPTSE traded between 29,530.92 (Nov 7, 2025) and 37,069.11 (Aug 26, 2026); the current price sits 3.5% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.05% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^GSPTSE is currently trading 0.41% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the upper portion of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 49.2, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Leading Index MoM (CA) (r=+0.79), 30-Year Bond Auction (CA) (r=+0.64), Retail Sales MoM (CA) (r=+0.53)
Inversely correlated: Core Inflation Rate YoY (CA) (r=-0.75), Retail Sales YoY (CA) (r=-0.68), Building Permits MoM (CA) (r=-0.63), Inflation Rate MoM (CA) (r=-0.61), Inflation Rate YoY (CA) (r=-0.55)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: Canada economic indicators
