What is the S&P/TSX Composite forecast?

The S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) is forecasted using our adaptive model ensemble that generates 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day predictions with confidence intervals and expected zone analysis. View the latest S&P/TSX Composite forecast on this page.

What is the S&P/TSX Composite expected price range?

The S&P/TSX Composite expected move is estimated as a symmetric range around the current level across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions — see the expected-move ranges on this page.

How accurate are S&P/TSX Composite predictions?

Sigmanomics tracks all forecast accuracy transparently. View median absolute error and zone-containment metrics for S&P/TSX Composite and all other instruments on our Performance page at sigmanomics.com/performance.

How much could ^GSPTSE move?

^GSPTSE has an expected move of roughly ±1.4% over 7 days, ±2.1% over 14 days, ±3.3% over 28 days — symmetric ranges around the current price derived from recent realized volatility. These are magnitude estimates, not directional predictions. ^GSPTSE's recent path efficiency (ER) is 0.30 over the trailing 14 sessions, indicating a choppy, range-bound path.

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Primary economy: Canada economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sam Bourgi is an analyst, writer and financial market commentator featured in and cited by U.S. Congress, Department of Justice, Chicago Board Options Exchange, Barron's and Forbes. He covers stocks, bonds, mutual funds, ETFs, forex, Bitcoin, cryptocurrency, real estate and macroeconomics. He has written over 25,000 articles and over 40 whitepapers and e-books.

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

^GSPTSE's band is still building its audit record. Sigmacast's calibrated band is sized from realized volatility and graded against every terminal close as its audit record builds. Horizon grades appear as each one's history matures — current status is below.

Market-data read

^GSPTSE reads range-bound — no clean directional character at any horizon (ER 0.30 / 0.30 / 0.25). Recent action is directionless chop rather than a trend. Term-structure band: ±1.4% / ±2.1% / ±3.3% (7/14/28d).

short-term trend: trending up7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.69

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.4/2.1/3.4%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted up14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.1%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.30

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.1/3.2/5.2%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 3.3%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±3.3/5.0/8.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Exports (r=+0.66), Unemployment Rate (r=+0.52)

Inversely correlated: CFIB Business Barometer (r=-0.69), Core Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.67), Raw Materials Prices MoM (r=-0.66), Inflation Rate MoM (r=-0.52), Inflation Rate YoY (r=-0.50), Average Weekly Earnings (r=-0.47)

^GSPTSE

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

36375.64

Actual

July 07, 2026

+4.66%

34754.65

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+20.55%

30174.01

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^GSPTSE · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.1%range 35602.82 – 37148.46 · 14D

Upper / lower bound37148.46 / 35602.82

Outside-range leveloutside 35602.82 – 37148.46price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

The S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^GSPTSE index closed at 36,368.07 on August 7, 2026, reflecting a gain of 0.67% from the previous close of 36,125.92.

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a modest uptrend with a rally of 4.36%, ranging between 34,618.38 and 36,443.29. The price currently trades above its 20-day moving average of 35,502.46. The 14-day RSI stands at 65.5, in the upper part of its range.

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.66%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Daily-return volatility of 0.66% is subdued for this index, leaving recent ranges compressed — watch for a decisive break of the band as the more telling development. ^GSPTSE is currently trading 2.44% above its 20-day moving average. Its 14-day RSI reads 65.5, currently in neutral territory.

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

Primary economy: Canada economic indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

Sigmacast expected range · 7–28-day calibrated zone

Forecast batch: 8/7/26

Market-data read

short-term trend: trending up7d

7 Day^prov

± 1.4%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.69

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

7-day window · fewer obs, noisier

60/80/95 · ±1.4/2.1/3.4%

medium-term trend: choppy · drifted up14d

14 Day^prov

± 2.1%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.30

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±2.1/3.2/5.2%

long-term trend: choppy · drifted up28d

28 Day^prov

± 3.3%

expected move

path efficiency (ER)0.32

0 choppy/rangetrend 1.0

60/80/95 · ±3.3/5.0/8.0%

Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)

Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)

8 correlated indicators

Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.

Positively correlated: Exports (r=+0.66), Unemployment Rate (r=+0.52)

^GSPTSE

indices

Current Price

August 07, 2026

Market Closed

36375.64

Actual

July 07, 2026

+4.66%

34754.65

1 Month Ago

August 07, 2025

+20.55%

30174.01

1 Year Ago

Upcoming Forecasts

View All Forecasts →

^GSPTSE · INDICES

14-DAY FORECAST · 8/21/26

EXPECTED MOVE± 2.1%range 35602.82 – 37148.46 · 14D

Upper / lower bound37148.46 / 35602.82

Outside-range leveloutside 35602.82 – 37148.46price exits the expected band (either side)

Containment~60% (provisional)band hits its stated rate (backtest)

Term structure · expected move by horizon

Containment = how often the band held (backtest) — magnitude only, not a directional record.

Outcome legend

Magnitude · primary

How big was the move vs the forecast band?

+12.4%band-relative outcome efficiency

—efficiency not yet computed for this trade

Zone

Did price stay inside the expected band?

CONTAINEDentry price inside the expected band

BREACHED HIGHentry above the band's upper bound

BREACHED LOWentry below the band's lower bound

· · · Explore all 9 models across all timeframes on Sigmanomics · · ·

Signal Tracker Record / PerformancePast Performance →

Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.

Market-data read

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 0.66%, reflecting subdued price variability for this index.

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Aug 2026.

Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^GSPTSE

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^GSPTSE

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

S&P/TSX Composite (^GSPTSE) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis

^GSPTSE

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

Sam Bourgi, Analyst

^GSPTSE

Current Price

Upcoming Forecasts

→ SETUP

→ WHAT'S DRIVING IT

→ THE RISK

→ WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

Related Pairs

Correlated Economic Indicators

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT

SETUP

WHAT'S DRIVING IT

THE RISK

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT