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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Primary Budget Surplus climbed to 1.4B in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Primary Budget Surplus climbed to 1.4B in August 2026, up 56.7B from July's -55.3B reading.
Latest Release
1.400000
Actual
—
Consensus
-55.300000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.65 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Primary Budget Surplus (Brazil) was reported at 1.40 billion in August 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -55.30 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.78 billion, ranging from -56.13 billion to 103.69 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -36.68 billion, down from the prior three at 37.31 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 42.35 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 51.98 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 30, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Primary Budget Surplus - BR
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About Primary Budget Surplus — Brazil
DEFINITION
The primary budget surplus is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its non-interest expenditures. It excludes interest payments on debt, providing a more accurate picture of a government's fiscal health. A positive primary budget surplus indicates that a government is generating enough revenue to cover its day-to-day expenses, which can lead to a reduction in overall debt and a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it reflects a government's ability to manage its finances and make sound budgetary decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual 1.4 B. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -55.3 B. Before that (May 2026): -56.13 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.65) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |