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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Primary Budget Surplus fell to -10B in September 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil Primary Budget Surplus fell to -10B in September 2026, down 11.4B from August's 1.4B reading.
Latest Release
-10.000000
Actual
—
Consensus
1.400000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Primary Budget Surplus (Brazil) was reported at -10.00 billion in September 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.40 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.12 billion, ranging from -56.13 billion to 103.69 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -21.30 billion, down from the prior three at -15.97 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 42.14 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 48.76 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include BCB Focus Market Readout (Oct 13) and Business Confidence (Oct 14).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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Primary Budget Surplus - BR
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About Primary Budget Surplus — Brazil
DEFINITION
The primary budget surplus is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its non-interest expenditures. It excludes interest payments on debt, providing a more accurate picture of a government's fiscal health. A positive primary budget surplus indicates that a government is generating enough revenue to cover its day-to-day expenses, which can lead to a reduction in overall debt and a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it reflects a government's ability to manage its finances and make sound budgetary decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -10 B. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 1.4 B. Before that (Jun 2026): -55.3 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 44 | 44.00 | Medium | |
| 17:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 44 | 44.00 | Medium | |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.10 | Low | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.8 | 0.60 | Medium | |