Loading page content
Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Primary Budget Surplus climbed to -5.5B in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil Primary Budget Surplus climbed to -5.5B in October 2026, up 4.5B from September's -10B reading.
Latest Release
-5.500000
Actual
—
Consensus
-10.000000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.64 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.57 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.44 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Primary Budget Surplus (Brazil) was reported at -5.50 billion in October 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -10.00 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.57 billion, ranging from -56.13 billion to 103.69 billion across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -4.70 billion, up from the prior three at -28.94 billion. Volatility over the past year (σ 40.38 billion) is lower than the prior year (σ 48.76 billion).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500). A secondary relationship exists with Bovespa, negatively correlated (Bearish Bovespa).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
SHARE
Primary Budget Surplus - BR
Loading chart data...
About Primary Budget Surplus — Brazil
DEFINITION
The primary budget surplus is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its non-interest expenditures. It excludes interest payments on debt, providing a more accurate picture of a government's fiscal health. A positive primary budget surplus indicates that a government is generating enough revenue to cover its day-to-day expenses, which can lead to a reduction in overall debt and a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it reflects a government's ability to manage its finances and make sound budgetary decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Sep 2026): actual -5.5 B. Prior reading (Aug 2026): -10 B. Before that (Jul 2026): 1.4 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bearish S&P 500, r=-0.64) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
Σ
EXPECTED ZONE
SIGMANOMICS MARKET FORECAST ENGINE
Multi-horizon symbol forecasts, Rolling-Surprise economic predictions, and programmatic API access.
Expected Zones · Trade Bias · Confidence Intervals · API Access · 1,456+ instruments
FOREXCRYPTOSTOCKSCOMMODITIESINDICESAPI
BLSBEAFMPWORLD BANKFRED
1,456+ instruments247 indicators530+ correlationsREST + GQL API
4,151 economic indicators127 countries covered6 data sources
FREDBLSEIAECBBOJFMP
Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |