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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Primary Budget Surplus fell to -56.13B in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased June 2026
Brazil Primary Budget Surplus fell to -56.13B in June 2026, down 80.76B from May's 24.62B reading.
Latest Release
-56.131000
Actual
—
Consensus
24.624000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.67 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.66 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▲ Direct | +0.47 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.38 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Primary Budget Surplus (Brazil) was reported at -55.30 billion in July 2026. The reading rose from the previous value of -56.13 billion. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through June 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -6.21 billion, ranging from -66.57 billion to 103.69 billion across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -15.97 billion, down from the prior three at 31.85 billion.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update June 2026.
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Primary Budget Surplus - BR
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About Primary Budget Surplus — Brazil
DEFINITION
The primary budget surplus is a financial indicator that measures the difference between a government's total revenue and its non-interest expenditures. It excludes interest payments on debt, providing a more accurate picture of a government's fiscal health. A positive primary budget surplus indicates that a government is generating enough revenue to cover its day-to-day expenses, which can lead to a reduction in overall debt and a stronger economy. This indicator is closely monitored by investors, policymakers, and economists as it reflects a government's ability to manage its finances and make sound budgetary decisions.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Fiscal and debt-supply data influence sovereign-yield term premia and currency expectations, particularly when supply pressures interact with policy normalization. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual -55.3 B. Prior reading (May 2026): -56.13 B. Before that (Apr 2026): 24.62 B.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bearish Bovespa, r=-0.67) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |