NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) Index Forecast — Price Prediction & Analysis
^NDX
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View All Forecasts →CPI (Nov 10) inside all horizons — premium not comparable to band.
Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
5 of 7 models in band
± 5.84% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Coherent near-term trend; possible regime shift if 1W turns.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
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Suitability · premium context. Whether options are rich or cheap to own here — sizing input, not a price call.
^NDX's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±3.8% over 7 days, widening to ±9.0% over 28.
Premium grade: 2026-11-08 05:10 UTC
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited · early record · 65.9% (82 forecast-days · n_eff=8 independent windows) · CI 33–88% · as of 7 Nov 2026 · n_eff as of 8 Nov 2026 → full record
Across 82 graded 14-day forecast-days since 11 Jun 2026 (8 independent windows), ^NDX's expected-range band contained price 65.9% of the time (95% CI 33–88%; stated rate: 80%).
As of November 8, 2026, ^NDX is trading at 26989.99. Our multi-model Sigmanomics forecast for this index generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. Based on ensemble models including SIGMACAST, Σ-Adaptive, and Σ-Trend with model-agreement confidence bands. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
The NASDAQ 100 (^NDX) is a market index covered by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The ^NDX index closed at 26,979.68 on November 6, 2026, reflecting a gain of 1.26% from the previous close of 26,643.16.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the index has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 10.84%, ranging between 26,607.35 and 31,360.62. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 29,089.39. The 14-day RSI stands at 31.3, in the lower part of its range.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 1.70%, reflecting typical price variability for this index. Over the past 52 weeks, ^NDX traded between 22,841.81 (Mar 30, 2026) and 31,360.62 (Oct 6, 2026); the current price sits 14.0% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 1.70% runs elevated for this index, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. ^NDX is currently trading 7.25% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 31.3, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: Gross Domestic Product MoM (SE) (r=+0.88), Interest Rate Decision (MX) (r=+0.86), New Passenger Car Registrations (UK) (r=+0.86), GDP Growth Rate YoY (RU) (r=+0.84)
Inversely correlated: CPI MoM (CA) (r=-0.91), Gross Domestic Product YoY (HU) (r=-0.89), Interest Rate Decision (AO) (r=-0.87), Manufacturing PMI (IT) (r=-0.87)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.Related Pairs
Correlated Economic Indicators
Primary economy: United States economic indicators
