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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM climbed to 0.01% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased September 2026
Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM climbed to 0.01% in August 2026, released September 2026, up 0.04% from July's -0.03% reading. The print exceeded the -0.4% consensus by 0.41%.
Latest Release
0.010000
Actual
-0.400000
Consensus
-0.030000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.24 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Sep 2026
Predicted: -0.54
Actual: 0.01
Error: -0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.26 | COMMODITIES | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.01% in September 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.4% by 0.41%. The reading rose from the previous value of -0.03%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through September 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28%, ranging from -0.03% to 0.65% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.05%, down from the prior three at 0.43%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.2%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.31%). In September readings over the past 3 years, IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM has averaged 0.08%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with EUR/USD (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.24%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for October 2, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update September 2026.
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IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM - BR
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About IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in consumer prices in Brazil. It is calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Foundation Institute of Economic Research (Fipe) using a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by urban households. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current inflation rate and can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions regarding the Brazilian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 0.01 %, consensus -0.4 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -0.03 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.18 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook diverging from that direction. The 1-month and 3-month horizons disagree, suggesting a mixed signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |