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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM fell to 0.18% in June 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM fell to 0.18% in June 2026, released July 2026, down 0.27% from May's 0.45% reading. The reading missed the 0.3% consensus by 0.12%.
Latest Release
0.180000
Actual
0.300000
Consensus
0.450000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.18 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: 0.33
Actual: 0.18
Error: +0.15
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.43 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| Bovespa | ▼ Inverse | −0.27 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.18% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of 0.3% by 0.12%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.45%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.31%, ranging from 0.04% to 0.65% across 11 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.41%, up from the prior three at 0.26%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.17%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.31%).
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.18%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 4, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM - BR
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About IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
IPC-Fipe Inflation MoM is a widely used financial indicator that measures the monthly change in consumer prices in Brazil. It is calculated by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Foundation Institute of Economic Research (Fipe) using a basket of goods and services commonly purchased by urban households. This indicator provides valuable insight into the current inflation rate and can help investors and policymakers make informed decisions regarding the Brazilian economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jun 2026): actual 0.18 %, consensus 0.3 %. Prior reading (May 2026): 0.45 %. Before that (Apr 2026): 0.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with S&P 500 (Bullish S&P 500, r=0.43) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |