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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-M Inflation MoM climbed to -0.22% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM climbed to -0.22% in August 2026, up 0.94% from July's -1.16% reading. The print exceeded the -0.25% consensus by 0.03%.
Latest Release
-0.220000
Actual
-0.250000
Consensus
-1.160000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Aug 2026
Predicted: -0.28
Actual: -0.22
Error: -0.06
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.61 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.37 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-M Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at -0.22% in August 2026. This beat the market consensus of -0.25% by 0.03%. The reading rose from the previous value of -1.16%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through August 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.01%, ranging from -1.16% to 0.84% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged -0.63%, down from the prior three at 0.21%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.57%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.9%). In August readings over the past 3 years, IGP-M Inflation MoM has averaged 0.14%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for September 29, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15) and Retail Sales MoM (Sep 15).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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IGP-M Inflation MoM - BR
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About IGP-M Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
The IGP-M Inflation MoM is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) in Brazil. It is considered a key indicator of inflation trends and is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to monitor and analyze the country's economic performance. The IGP-M Inflation MoM provides valuable insights into the current state of the Brazilian economy and helps inform decision-making processes related to investments, pricing strategies, and monetary policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.22 %, consensus -0.25 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -1.16 %. Before that (Jun 2026): -0.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.61) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Monday, September 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14:00 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| 17:30 | BR | Business Confidence | 44.9 | 46.3 | 45.7 | 45.30 | Medium |
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.65 | Medium | |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low | |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low | |
| 21:30 | BR | Interest Rate Decision | 14 | 13.75 | 13.75 | Medium | |