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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to -1.16% in July 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased July 2026
Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to -1.16% in July 2026, down 0.66% from June's -0.5% reading. The reading missed the -1.09% consensus by 0.07%.
Latest Release
-1.160000
Actual
-1.090000
Consensus
-0.500000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.1 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Jul 2026
Predicted: -1.09
Actual: -1.16
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.74 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| USD/BRL | ▼ Inverse | −0.31 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-M Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at -1.16% in July 2026. This missed the market consensus of -1.09% by 0.07%. The reading fell from the previous value of -0.5%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through July 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.04%, ranging from -1.16% to 0.84% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.27%, down from the prior three at 0.07%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.57%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.89%). In July readings over the past 3 years, IGP-M Inflation MoM has averaged -0.44%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with USD/BRL, negatively correlated (Bearish USD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.1%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for August 28, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Industrial Production MoM (Aug 4) and S&P Global Services PMI (Aug 5).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update July 2026.
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IGP-M Inflation MoM - BR
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About IGP-M Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
The IGP-M Inflation MoM is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) in Brazil. It is considered a key indicator of inflation trends and is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to monitor and analyze the country's economic performance. The IGP-M Inflation MoM provides valuable insights into the current state of the Brazilian economy and helps inform decision-making processes related to investments, pricing strategies, and monetary policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Jul 2026): actual -1.16 %, consensus -1.09 %. Prior reading (Jun 2026): -0.5 %. Before that (May 2026): 0.84 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.74) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, July 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | -1.16 | -0.5 | -1.09 | -1.13 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.60 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | Unemployment Rate | 5.4 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.40 | Medium |