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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to 1.47% in October 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to 1.47% in October 2026, down 0.1% from September's 1.57% reading. The reading missed the 1.6% consensus by 0.13%.
Latest Release
1.470000
Actual
1.600000
Consensus
1.570000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.07 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 1.6
Actual: 1.47
Error: +0.13
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.64 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/USD | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-M Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at 1.47% in October 2026. This missed the market consensus of 1.6% by 0.13%. The reading fell from the previous value of 1.57%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.19%, ranging from -1.16% to 1.57% across 13 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 0.94%, up from the prior three at -0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.78%) is lower than the prior year (σ 0.89%). In October readings over the past 3 years, IGP-M Inflation MoM has averaged 0.78%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/USD, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.07%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 27, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Oct 30) and BCB Focus Market Readout (Nov 2).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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IGP-M Inflation MoM - BR
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About IGP-M Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
The IGP-M Inflation MoM is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) in Brazil. It is considered a key indicator of inflation trends and is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to monitor and analyze the country's economic performance. The IGP-M Inflation MoM provides valuable insights into the current state of the Brazilian economy and helps inform decision-making processes related to investments, pricing strategies, and monetary policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Oct 2026): actual 1.47 %, consensus 1.6 %. Prior reading (Sep 2026): 1.57 %. Before that (Aug 2026): -0.22 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.64) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Thursday, October 29, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-M Inflation MoM | 1.47 | 1.57 | 1.6 | 1.54 | Low |
| 11:30 | BR | Bank Lending MoM | 0.4 | 0.5 | 1 | 0.70 | Low |
| 17:00 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |
| 18:30 | BR | Gross Debt to GDP | 82.9 | 82.9 | 83.5 | 83.37 | Low |