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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to 0.84% in May 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased May 2026
Brazil IGP-M Inflation MoM fell to 0.84% in May 2026, down 1.89% from April's 2.73% reading. The reading matched the 0.8% consensus.
Latest Release
0.840000
Actual
0.800000
Consensus
2.730000
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.23 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
May 2026
Predicted: 0.81
Actual: 0.84
Error: -0.03
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.70 | INDEX | Bullish Bovespa | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.27 | CRYPTO | Bullish BTC | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
IGP-M Inflation MoM (Brazil) was reported at 0.84% in May 2026. This beat the market consensus of 0.8% by 0.04%. The reading fell from the previous value of 2.73%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through May 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged -0.03%, ranging from -1.67% to 0.84% across 12 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.21%, down from the prior three at 0.27%. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.69%) is higher than the prior year (σ 0.58%). In May readings over the past 3 years, IGP-M Inflation MoM has averaged 0.41%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.23%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for June 26, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Jun 17) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Jun 19).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update May 2026.
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IGP-M Inflation MoM - BR
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About IGP-M Inflation MoM — Brazil
DEFINITION
The IGP-M Inflation MoM is a widely recognized financial indicator that measures the monthly change in the General Price Index - Market (IGP-M) in Brazil. It is considered a key indicator of inflation trends and is used by investors, businesses, and policymakers to monitor and analyze the country's economic performance. The IGP-M Inflation MoM provides valuable insights into the current state of the Brazilian economy and helps inform decision-making processes related to investments, pricing strategies, and monetary policies.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (May 2026): actual 0.84 %, consensus 0.8 %. Prior reading (Apr 2026): 2.73 %. Before that (Mar 2026): 0.52 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.70) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.