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Data from Emerging Markets composite. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
BrazilBrazil Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly fell to -0.32 Percent in July 2026
Emerging Markets compositeMonthlyReleased August 2026
Brazil Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly fell to -0.32 Percent in July 2026, released August 2026, down 0.39 Percent from June's 0.07 Percent reading.
Latest Release
-0.320000
Actual
—
Consensus
0.070000
Previous
Sigmacast Track Record
Sigmacast track record will appear here once this indicator has been released 3+ times since Sigmanomics began tracking.
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovespa | ▲ Direct | +0.57 | INDEX | Moves with | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▼ Inverse | −0.39 | INDEX | Moves against | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly (Brazil) was reported at -0.32 Percent in July 2026. The reading fell from the previous value of 0.07 Percent. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 0.28 Percent, ranging from -0.32 Percent to 0.70 Percent across 10 releases. This is classified as a critical-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged -0.03 Percent, down from the prior three at 0.65 Percent. Volatility over the past year (σ 0.30 Percent) is comparable than the prior year (σ 0.33 Percent). In August readings over the past 3 years, Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly has averaged -0.15 Percent.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa). A secondary relationship exists with S&P 500, negatively correlated (Bearish S&P 500).
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Interest Rate Decision (Sep 16) and CFTC BRL speculative net positions (Sep 18).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update August 2026.
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Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly - BR
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About Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly — Brazil
DEFINITION
Brazil IPCA Inflation Monthly for July registered 0.070000 percent, down sharply from June's 0.160000 percent. The slowdown in inflation indicates easing price pressures after a moderate rise in June. Market focus will remain on upcoming central bank communications amid this deceleration. Updated 8/12/26
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Inflation prints feed directly into central-bank policy expectations and real-yield calculations, and are among the most rate-sensitive releases on the calendar. Releases in this category are tier-1 market events that frequently produce same-session cross-asset repricing. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual -0.32 Percent. Prior reading (Jul 2026): 0.07 Percent. Before that (Jun 2026): 0.16 Percent.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with Bovespa (Bullish Bovespa, r=0.57) — a useful reference for index-focused traders.
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EXPECTED ZONE
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Economic Calendar - BR Events
| Tuesday, September 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales MoM | -0.8 | 0.3 | -0.2 | -0.50 | Medium |
| 12:00 | BR | Retail Sales YoY | 1.2 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.70 | Low |
| Wednesday, September 16, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 11:00 | BR | IGP-10 Inflation Index MoM | 1.5 | -0.5 | 1.3 | 1.40 | Low |
| 12:00 | BR | IBC-BR Economic Activity | -0.2 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.15 | Low |