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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
CanadaCanada Building Permits MoM climbed to 8.8% in August 2026
FMPMonthlyReleased October 2026
Canada Building Permits MoM climbed to 8.8% in August 2026, released October 2026, up 24.6% from July's -15.8% reading. The print exceeded the 2.9% consensus by 5.9%. The print is running well above the 12-month average of -0.21%. Over the past 3 months, Building Permits MoM averaged 0.6%, vs 0.33% in the prior 3-month window.
Latest Release
8.8
Actual
2.9
Consensus
-15.8
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±7.53 percentage points
across last 12 releases
Last Call
Oct 2026
Predicted: 4.6
Actual: 8.8
Error: -4.2
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Co-movement | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| CAD/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.45 | FOREX | Moves with | → View |
| WTI Crude | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
| EUR/CAD | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Moves against | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Moves with | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Building Permits MoM (Canada) was reported at 8.8% in October 2026. This beat the market consensus of 2.9% by 5.9%. The reading rose from the previous value of -15.8%. Trailing 12-month context per ETL data through October 2026. Over the past 12 months, the indicator has averaged 1.83%, ranging from -17.3% to 18.5% across 6 releases.
WHY IT MATTERS
The trailing three releases averaged 3.33%, up from the prior three at 0.33%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD). A secondary relationship exists with CAD/JPY, positively correlated (Bullish CAD). Over the last 12 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 7.53%.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
The next release is scheduled for November 12, 2026. Same-country events in the next 14 days include BoC Gov Macklem Speech (Oct 16) and Housing Starts (Oct 16).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update October 2026.
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Building Permits MoM - CA
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About Building Permits MoM — Canada
DEFINITION
Building Permits MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key financial indicator that measures the change in the number of permits issued for new construction projects on a monthly basis. This data provides valuable insights into the current and future state of the construction industry, as well as the overall health of the economy. It is closely monitored by investors, analysts, and policymakers as it can indicate trends in housing demand, consumer confidence, and economic growth. A higher number of building permits MoM is generally seen as a positive sign for the economy, while a decline may signal a slowdown in construction activity.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Housing data leads broader economic cycles by several months and is highly rate-sensitive, with knock-on effects to construction, materials, and consumer credit. Surprises against consensus can drive short-term moves, particularly when the print breaks an established trend. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Aug 2026): actual 8.8 %, consensus 2.9 %. Prior reading (Jul 2026): -17.3 %. Before that (Jun 2026): 18.5 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a materially higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CAD (Bullish CAD, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.
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Economic Calendar - CA Events
| Wednesday, October 14, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | CA | Building Permits MoM | 8.8 | -15.8 | 2.9 | 5.85 | Low |
| Thursday, October 15, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 12:30 | CA | Capacity Utilization | 81.9 | 80.7 | 81 | 81.45 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | New Motor Vehicle Sales | 174.6 | 176.2 | 161 | 167.80 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Wholesale Sales MoM | -1.6 | 0.3 | -1.5 | -1.55 | Low |
| 12:30 | CA | Manufacturing Sales MoM | 1.5 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.30 | Low |