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DRAFT: Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product YoY for January 2026 came in at 12.65%, slightly missing the estimate of 12.68% but significantly up from December's 8.42%, signaling strong economic expansion. This robust growth reflects sustained momentum in Taiwan's economy despite minor forecast deviations. Market watchers will likely focus on how this growth influences upcoming monetary policy decisions and sector investment strategies. Updated 2/13/26 AUDIT: 1. Claim: Taiwan's GDP YoY for January 2026 is 12.65%, slightly missing the estimate of 12.68%. - Status: ✅ Verified - Source: FACTS JSON "actual": "12.65", "estimate": "12.68" - Expert agreement: Yes, this is a direct data point. 2. Claim: The GDP is significantly up from December's 8.42%, signaling strong economic expansion. - Status: ✅ Verified - Source: FACTS JSON "previous": "8.42" - Expert agreement: Yes, a rise from 8.42% to 12.65% YoY indicates expansion. 3. Claim: The growth reflects sustained momentum despite minor forecast deviations and will influence monetary policy and sector investment. - Status: ⚠ Uncertain - Source: Interpretation based on economic norms, not explicitly stated in FACTS JSON - Expert agreement: Likely but not guaranteed without explicit policy statements. FINAL: Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product YoY for January 2026 registered 12.65%, narrowly missing the 12.68% estimate but rising sharply from December's 8.42%, indicating strong economic expansion. This growth underscores continued momentum in Taiwan's economy despite the slight forecast miss. Attention will turn to how this performance shapes monetary policy and investment outlooks. Updated 2/13/26
| Monday, March 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:00 | TW | Balance of Trade | 12.77 | 18.89 | 14.6 | 14.53 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Imports YoY | 6.8 | 63.6 | 23.7 | 22.47 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Exports YoY | 20.6 | 69.9 | 28.8 | 30.00 | Low |
| Friday, March 6, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.75 | 0.69 | 0.7 | 0.99 | Low |
| Thursday, March 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Industrial Production YoY | 28.51 | 23.07 | 18 | 21.03 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Retail Sales YoY | -3.4 | 0.9 | 1 | 0.02 | Low |
| Wednesday, March 4, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Export Orders YoY | 60.1 | 43.8 | 50 | 53.23 | Low |
| Tuesday, March 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:00 | TW | Consumer Confidence | 66.58 | 67.16 | 68 | 67.96 | Low |
| 00:30 | TW | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | - | 51.7 | 52.1 | 52.97 | Low |
| Monday, March 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TW | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 55.2 | 51.7 | 52.1 | 52.97 | Low |
| Thursday, February 26, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:20 | TW | Current Account | 69.93 | 45.84 | 42 | 55.97 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | GDP Growth Rate YoY | - | 8.21 | 12.68 | 14.57 | Low |
| Wednesday, February 25, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Unemployment Rate | 3.36 | 3.35 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Friday, February 13, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 12.65 | 8.42 | 12.68 | 13.72 | Low |
| Monday, February 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Exports YoY | 69.9 | 43.4 | 51.9 | 53.10 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Balance of Trade | 18.89 | 19.43 | 21 | 20.93 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Imports YoY | 63.6 | 14.9 | 40.85 | 39.63 | Low |
| Thursday, February 5, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.1 | 0.14 | 0.2 | 0.16 | Low |
| Tuesday, February 3, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:00 | TW | Consumer Confidence | - | 64.3 | 64.8 | 64.76 | Low |
| 01:20 | TW | Consumer Confidence | 67.16 | 64.3 | 64.8 | 64.76 | Low |
| Monday, February 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TW | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 51.7 | 50.9 | 51 | 51.87 | Low |
| Friday, January 30, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | GDP Growth Rate YoY | 12.68 | 8.21 | 8.9 | 10.79 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Gross Domestic Product YoY | 12.68 | 8.21 | 8.5 | 9.54 | Low |
| Friday, January 23, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Retail Sales YoY | - | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.22 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Industrial Production YoY | - | 16.42 | 17 | 20.03 | Low |
| Thursday, January 22, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Unemployment Rate | - | 3.35 | 3.4 | 3.40 | Low |
| Tuesday, January 20, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Export Orders YoY | 43.8 | 39.5 | 41 | 44.23 | Low |
| Friday, January 9, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Imports YoY | 14.9 | 45 | 28.1 | 26.88 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Exports YoY | 43.4 | 56 | 46 | 47.20 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Balance of Trade | 19.43 | 16.09 | 15.9 | 15.83 | Low |
| Wednesday, January 7, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Inflation Rate MoM | 0.14 | 0.09 | 0.2 | 0.16 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Inflation Rate YoY | 1.31 | 1.23 | 1.2 | 1.49 | Low |
| Friday, January 2, 2026 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 00:30 | TW | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI | 50.9 | 48.8 | 49.5 | 50.37 | Low |
| Monday, December 29, 2025 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 02:00 | TW | Consumer Confidence | 64.3 | 64.65 | 65.5 | 65.46 | Low |
| Wednesday, December 24, 2025 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Retail Sales YoY | 1.4 | 1.9 | 0.9 | -0.08 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Industrial Production YoY | 16.42 | 14.15 | 14.8 | 17.83 | Low |
| Tuesday, December 23, 2025 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Export Orders YoY | 39.5 | 25.1 | 33 | 36.23 | Low |
| Monday, December 22, 2025 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 08:00 | TW | Unemployment Rate | 3.35 | 3.33 | 3.3 | 3.30 | Low |
| Thursday, December 18, 2025 | Actual | Previous | Consensus | Sigmanomics Rolling-Surprise Forecast | Impact | ||
| 09:00 | TW | Interest Rate | - | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium |
| 08:30 | TW | Interest Rate Decision | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Low |
| 08:00 | TW | Interest Rate | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | Medium |