DL1 Commodity Forecast — Price & Market Analysis
DL1
commoditiesCurrent Price
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View All Forecasts →Nested 60 / 80 / 95 calibrated expected-range · centered on current price (gold tick)
Containment = share of graded forecast-days the 60% band held; its 95% interval counts independent windows only (n_eff, non-overlapping, stride = horizon) — per-symbol audit; static backtest copy where the audit has no n_eff yet. Magnitude only, not a directional record.
± 2.14% expected move
backtest — refresh paused (#568)
Actionable · size by band. The validated edge is magnitude, not direction.
Timeframes diverge — no single coherent trend.
Context, not a trade signal · forward test pending.
Descriptive — does not size the band.
DL1's calibrated band puts the expected move at ±1.7% over 7 days, widening to ±2.6% over 28.
Sigmacast expected range · containment-audited.
Containment record withheld on 2 Nov 2026 (DC-001): commodity price bars carry Australia/Sydney local timestamps stored as UTC, so graded outcomes were computed against misdated bars. It returns when the timestamp fix lands and the rows re-settle.
As of November 10, 2026, DL1 is trading at 1.79. Our Sigmanomics forecast for this commodity generates expected price ranges (magnitude, not direction) across 7-day, 14-day, and 28-day horizons, each with a recent-path character readout. The 60%, 80% and 95% bands are sized from the instrument's realized volatility. Updated daily.
Forecasts generated by Sigmanomics engine. Not financial advice.
SETUP
Ethanol Futures (DL1) is a commodity instrument tracked by the Sigmanomics analytics platform. The DL1 commodity closed at 1.7896 on November 10, 2026, reflecting a decline of 1.44% from the previous close of 1.8158.
WHAT'S DRIVING IT
Over the past 30 days, the commodity has experienced a strong downtrend with a decline of 11.11%, ranging between 1.7492 and 2.0710. The price currently trades below its 20-day moving average of 1.8011. The 14-day RSI stands at 38.8, in the lower part of its range.
THE RISK
Over the same 30-day window, daily-return volatility was 2.06%, reflecting typical price variability for this commodity. Over the past 52 weeks, DL1 traded between 1.5300 (Jan 17, 2026) and 2.1911 (Sep 23, 2026); the current price sits 18.3% below the 52-week high.
WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT
Daily-return volatility of 2.06% runs elevated for this commodity, so price ranges are likely to stay wide — watch how price behaves around its recent range rather than treating any single level as fixed. DL1 is currently trading 0.64% below its 20-day moving average and sitting in the middle of its 52-week range. Its 14-day RSI reads 38.8, currently in neutral territory.
Macro correlations · context (not confirmation)
8 correlated indicators
Observed historical correlations, not forward signals.
Positively correlated: ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders (US) (r=+0.75), BoE Consumer Credit (US) (r=+0.72), Imports (US) (r=+0.67)
Inversely correlated: Richmond Fed Services Revenues Index (US) (r=-0.81), Non Defense Goods Orders Ex Air (US) (r=-0.75), PPI Final Demand Ex Food Energy Trade (US) (r=-0.72), Producer Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.71), House Price Index MoM (US) (r=-0.66)
Auto-generated from Sigmanomics market data. Last update Nov 2026.
Sigmacast forecasts span six horizons — 30-minute, 1-hour, 2-hour, 4-hour, 12-hour, and daily — refreshed continuously as new bars arrive.