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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
HungaryHungary Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.6% in February 2024
FMPMonthlyReleased April 2024
Hungary Retail Sales MoM fell to -0.6% in February 2024, released April 2024, down 0.6% from January's 0.0% reading. The reading missed the -0.3% consensus by 0.3%. Retail Sales MoM has now declined for 3 consecutive months. Retail Sales MoM is now the lowest in 21 months.
Latest Release
-0.6
Actual
-0.3
Consensus
0
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.7 percentage points
across last 4 releases
Last Call
Apr 2024
Predicted: -0.05
Actual: -0.6
Error: +0.55
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| USD/JPY | ▼ Inverse | −0.30 | FOREX | Watch | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| S&P 500 | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | INDEX | Watch | → View |
| BTC/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.30 | CRYPTO | Watch | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
Retail Sales MoM (Hungary) was reported at -0.6% in April 2024. This missed the market consensus of -0.3% by 0.3%. The reading fell from the previous value of 0%.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending downward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 0.27%, up from the prior three at 0.03%.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is positively correlated with BTC/USD (Watch). A secondary relationship exists with USD/JPY, negatively correlated (Watch).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update April 2024.
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Retail Sales MoM - HU
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About Retail Sales MoM — Hungary
DEFINITION
Retail Sales MoM (Month-over-Month) is a key economic indicator that measures the change in the total value of goods and services sold by retail stores in a given month compared to the previous month. This indicator provides valuable insights into consumer spending patterns and overall economic growth, making it a crucial tool for investors, businesses, and policymakers. A positive MoM growth in retail sales indicates a strong consumer demand, while a negative growth may signal a slowdown in economic activity. Retail Sales MoM is widely used to assess the health of the retail sector and its impact on the broader economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
Consumer activity accounts for the majority of GDP in advanced economies, making spending data a key cyclical signal for retail and discretionary sectors. The release is more useful as part of a longer-run signal than as a single-print catalyst. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Feb 2024): actual -0.6 %, consensus -0.3 %. Prior reading (Jan 2024): 0 %. Before that (Dec 2023): 1.4 %.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a lower reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bearish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary headwind in the current projection.