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Data from FMP. Forecasts by Sigmanomics Forecast Engine.
SwitzerlandSwitzerland KOF Leading Indicator held to 1.85 in November 2013
FMPMonthlyReleased November 2013
Switzerland KOF Leading Indicator held to 1.85 in November 2013. The reading matched the 1.88 consensus. KOF Leading Indicator has now risen for 9 consecutive months. Over the past 3 months, KOF Leading Indicator averaged 1.63, vs 1.25 in the prior 3-month window. KOF Leading Indicator is now the highest in 8 months.
Latest Release
1.85
Actual
1.88
Consensus
Previous
Median Absolute Error
±0.03
across last 9 releases
Last Call
Nov 2013
Predicted: 1.92
Actual: 1.85
Error: +0.07
Sigmacast Σ-direction model: consensus + ½ × mean(surprise, trailing 90d).
CORRELATED SYMBOLS— markets that historically move with this indicator
| Symbol | Direction | Correlation | Asset Class | Signal Bias | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.50 | FOREX | Bullish CHF | → View |
| EUR/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.45 | FOREX | Bearish EUR | → View |
| CHF/JPY | ▲ Direct | +0.40 | FOREX | Bullish CHF | → View |
| XAU/USD | ▲ Direct | +0.35 | COMMODITIES | Watch | → View |
| GBP/CHF | ▼ Inverse | −0.35 | FOREX | Bullish CHF | → View |
Correlation based on 12-month rolling window. Click any symbol to view its Sigmanomics forecast page.
THE RELEASE
KOF Leading Indicator (Switzerland) was reported at 1.85 in November 2013. This missed the market consensus of 1.88 by 0.03. This is classified as a high-impact indicator released on a monthly basis.
WHY IT MATTERS
The indicator has been trending upward over the last three releases. The trailing three releases averaged 1.70, up from the prior three at 1.25.
THE MODEL'S TAKE
Historically, this indicator is negatively correlated with USD/CHF (Bullish CHF). A secondary relationship exists with EUR/CHF, negatively correlated (Bearish EUR). Over the last 9 releases, the Sigmacast model's median absolute error is 0.03.
WHAT TO WATCH NEXT
Same-country events in the next 14 days include Current Account (Jun 23) and KOF Leading Indicators (Jun 30).
Auto-generated from current model state · Refreshes on each release · Last update November 2013.
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KOF Leading Indicator - CH
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About KOF Leading Indicator — Switzerland
DEFINITION
The KOF Leading Indicator is a widely recognized financial measure that provides insight into the future direction of the Swiss economy. It is based on a composite index of various economic indicators, such as consumer confidence, business sentiment, and stock market performance. This indicator is used by policymakers, investors, and businesses to anticipate potential changes in economic activity and make informed decisions. With its strong track record of accurately predicting economic trends, the KOF Leading Indicator is a valuable tool for assessing the overall health of the Swiss economy.
WHY THIS INDICATOR MATTERS
This release contributes to the broader macro picture used by cross-asset investors for positioning and risk management. Surprises against consensus typically move rates and currencies on release. Released monthly.
WHAT CHANGED THIS MONTH
Latest reading (Nov 2013): actual 1.85, consensus 1.88. Prior reading (Oct 2013): 1.72. Before that (Sep 2013): 1.53.
WHAT'S NEXT
Sigmacast's 1-month forecast points to a higher reading versus the latest print, with the 3-month outlook reinforcing that direction. Both horizons are aligned bullish for this indicator, suggesting a consistent trend signal. Trend-driven dynamics are the primary tailwind in the current projection. This indicator correlates most strongly with USD/CHF (Bullish CHF, r=-0.50) — a useful reference for forex-focused traders.